The role and place of management decisions in the process of managing the activities of an organization. The concept of a management decision and its place in the management process The place of a management decision in the management process

It is known that in any science the validity of theoretical conclusions and the value of practical recommendations for solving a particular problem directly depend on the correct understanding of phenomena and processes that are more general in relation to a given problem, on the methodology of the approach to solving it, ideological and general scientific foundations. Taking into account this methodological position, it is necessary to understand the concept of “management decision”, its role and place in the management of organizations.

Figure 3 shows the organization's management mechanism and the place of management decisions in it. IN production systems ah, the basis of which are social groups, management is essentially aimed at organizing the activities of personnel to achieve their goals.

In Figure 3, the control subsystem belongs to the production system; its management activities are carried out in a closed loop through feedback, which ensures influence on production factors at the expense of its own resources. This achieves self-organization of production systems. The control mechanism coordinates the input and output of the system. The work of this mechanism is coordinated by management influences (managerial decisions of the persons making them).

Figure 3 - Production process control mechanism.

Decision makers work on the basis of a strategic plan, program, algorithms and current information coming from senior management bodies, from the external environment and production process. The diagram shows that management decisions are the basis of management. In the literature, the term “management decision” is used in several meanings:

• - deliberate intention to do something, presupposing a preliminary awareness of the goals and means of action;
• - process of development and adoption the best option(alternatives) to solve the problem or task that has arisen;
• - fixed management act;
• - a volitional act of the head of an organization to choose an option for the activities of its personnel in achieving the set goal. The concept of “managerial decision” should be distinguished from the concept of “decision in general.” A person makes many decisions throughout his life: in business, production, personal relationships, Everyday life, but not all of them are managerial. The most important feature of a management decision is its direct focus on organizing collective work. In addition, the management decision as a control influence on collective work is not made by every employee, but only by the subject of management - the head of the organization (line manager) or a collegial body (board of directors).

An essential distinguishing feature of a management decision is its adoption only when it is necessary to involve the entire management system of the organization, to include its entire management mechanism.

Management theory and practice confirm the following:

• - management decision-making is associated with the processing of information related to the problem being solved and the selection, based on its analysis and synthesis, of the most preferable course of action;
• - an action option is selected based on criteria, restrictions and certain rules;
• - the system of criteria and rules for making management decisions are based on knowledge of the laws of management, taking into account the characteristics of the object of decision-making and the specific situation in which it is made;
• - the process of making a management decision covers elements of scientific knowledge, creativity and the art of management;
• - specific management decisions differ in specific content, but also have significant common properties. For example, a certain class of managerial (organizational) decisions usually includes answers to the following questions: what goal (or goals) is being pursued; what means and resources can be used to achieve this goal; what are the tasks of the structural units of the managed organization; what methods should be used to achieve the goal; what is the sequence and order of actions of personnel, etc.

The essence of a management decision is manifested in human activity, the role and place of the decision in the management process. The development, adoption and implementation of management decisions represent an integrative process of human activity, a sequential change of its states when decision makers and their management apparatus perform functional responsibilities.

A management decision is the result of systemic human activity and a product of a cognitive (mediated by cognitive factors), emotional, volitional, motivational nature - a synthesis of mental processes that have an initial regulatory focus. This is a volitional act of decision makers, formalized in the form of a document.

The solutions developed must correspond to the functions of the organization and the tasks it solves, the complexity of the current situation, the cooperative interests of those who jointly achieve agreed goals, and also satisfy the requirements of objective laws of management.

management decision accounting analyst

Topic 1. The essence and role of decisions in the management process

The processes of making management decisions occupy a central, hierarchically main place in the structure of management activities, since they are the ones in to the greatest extent determine both the content of this activity and its results.

Decision making, as well as information exchange, is an integral part of any management function. No function management, regardless of which body implements it, cannot be implemented without preparation and implementation management decisions.

When planning the work of an organization, managers determine the overall goal (mission), the main, main and key goals, develop a strategy and tactics for achieving goals, taking into account the most important factors of the external and internal environment, determine the necessary resources, and approve an action plan. A business plan should be qualified as a system of management decisions - a document on planning all aspects of an organization’s activities (marketing, innovation, production, financial, social, organizational). A business plan is developed for the purpose of comprehensive planning of an organization’s activities to implement an existing or create a new business, evaluate the company’s activities over the past period (plan/actual comparison), provide a feasibility study for obtaining a loan or attracting investments.

Performing the organizing function, managers make decisions on the development of the structure of the organization (enterprise) and management structure, on changes in the internal structure under the influence of changes in the surrounding social environment, on the level of centralization and decentralization, on the distribution of tasks, responsibilities and powers, on the organization of labor of workers and specialists and etc.

When implementing the motivation function, managers have to make decisions aimed at ensuring coordination of the goals and interests of the organization, work teams and individual employees, optimizing the relationship between reward and punishment

The implementation of the coordination function is associated with making decisions regarding ensuring interaction between management objects in the process of achieving common goals and solving common problems.

The control process is associated with making decisions about what, how and when to control, what types and forms of control to use, how to analyze the information received and adjust the activities of the organization in accordance with the results of control. Control data is associated with making decisions about the standards of “outstanding performance”, “good performance”, minimum requirements, and the scale of permissible deviations from the standard (target indicator).

Thus, in control theory, decisions are considered

Solution as a product- this is what a manager produces in the course of his professional activities

Solution as a tool– this is what the subject of management (manager) uses to implement its functions

Decision as a process characterized by the fact that it occurs over time and is carried out in several stages.

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Introduction

managerial decision leader

The relevance of this research topic lies in the fact that in the process of managing any object, decision-making plays a special role. This is due to the fact that the development and effectiveness of any system depends on the correctness of the decision made. Decisions have an impact on the organization and its financial results.

The purpose of writing this course work is the study of the place and role of management decisions in management. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

· consider the concept and essence of management decisions

· study the classification of management decisions

· consider the stages of developing management decisions

· explore the management decision-making process

· study the role of the manager in the process of making management decisions

· explore the application of a scientific approach to the decision-making process

· consider methods and models for optimizing management decisions

The object of study in this course work is a management decision.

The subject of research in this course work is the role of management decisions in management.

This course work consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion and a list of references.

1. Theoretical basis about management decisions

1.1 Concept and essence of management decisions

The practical need of society for scientific basis decision making arose with the development of science and technology only in the 18th century. The founder of the theory of decision making is considered to be Joseph Louis Lagrange, who solved the problem: how much earth should a digger take on a shovel in order for his shift productivity to be greatest. The theory of rational decision making specifies exactly what the sequential procedures must be in order for a decision to meet the criteria of rationality.

Simon proposed the concepts of classical (normative) and administrative (descriptive) models of decision making (1947, 1958, 1960), and also introduced the concept of “bounded rationality,” which assumes that the manager stops at the first rational decision option. Various aspects of the administrative decision-making model were developed by James Fredrickson, James Dean and Mark Sherfman.

Thus, in the middle of the 20th century, a school of management was formed, the ideas of which were associated with the identification and assessment of factors affecting economic and managerial processes. Diversity of external and internal environmental factors, multidirectional interests of subjects economic activity in the management process determined the use by managers of different options for action (decisions). The management process began to be viewed as a certain sequence of actions by the manager and the management apparatus to develop, make and implement management decisions. The selection of solution options and their comparison became possible as a result of the use of modeling, expert forecasting, economic-mathematical and network methods.

A management decision is a creative process of a manager (or a group of managers) who determines the program of an enterprise’s activities to effectively resolve a problem based on knowledge of the objective laws of the functioning of the managed system and analysis of information about its state.

The organizational aspect of the solution is manifested in the organization of development and organization of the implementation of the task. In this case, the following functions are implemented:

The guiding function of the decision is manifested in the fact that it is made based on the long-term development strategy of the enterprise, is specified in a variety of tasks and is implemented by general management functions: planning, organization, control, motivation;

The coordinating role of the decision is reflected in the need to coordinate the actions of the performers to implement the decision within the approved time frame and of appropriate quality;

The motivating function of the decision is implemented through a system of organizational measures (orders, resolutions, regulations), economic incentives (bonuses, allowances), social assessments (moral and political factors of labor activity: personal self-affirmation, creative self-realization).

A management decision influences the achievement of goals and strategies, the development and implementation of programs and activity plans, the functioning of the management system, the implementation of innovation, investment, production and marketing processes. The efficiency of the enterprise’s activities depends on the quality of its preparation, which is determined by the degree of effectiveness of the management influence of the subject of management on the object of management, the organization of the implementation of management decisions and control over their implementation.

The decision-making problem is of a fundamental nature, which is determined by the role that decisions play in the field of management activities. A management decision as a management category expresses the essence of the process of influence of the control system (subject) on the managed system (object), which ultimately leads to the achievement of the set goal. This circumstance emphasizes the determining place of management decisions in the management process.

The managerial decision is determined by the versatility of management relations inherent in the socio-economic system. Therefore, its essence is also multifaceted and interconnected with such categories as the management system, management functions (related to management methodology and technology), management process, processes of influence and interaction (Fig. 1).

Rice. 1 Decision making as a product of managerial work

In this case, the management decision acts as a link between groups of functions that reflect the processes of influence: the managing and managed parts of the socio-economic system (Fig. 2.). The essence of the influence process is expressed in the activation of joint activities of people to achieve a common goal as a result of the implementation of the basic functions of management. External relations and the implementation of external opportunities of the organization are essential.

Rice. 2 The place of management decisions in the management process

The management decision made to achieve the goal is considered:

· as a management process and its result;

· as a conscious and purposeful activity carried out by a manager;

· as a process of intensifying joint activities of people;

· as a process of interaction between individual links of the socio-economic system;

· as a process and result of the intellectual, emotional, psychological and organizational-legal activity of a manager in choosing a rational option for action;

· as a phenomenon expressed by an action plan, resolution, oral or written order.

Depending on the area of ​​development, management decisions can use different shapes developments: decree, law, order, order, instruction, act, protocol, instruction, contract, agreement, plan, contract, offer, acceptance, regulation, rules, model. Depending on the scope of implementation, management decisions can use different forms of implementation: prescription, persuasion, explanation, coercion, instruction, message, conversation, personal example, training, advice, meetings, sessions, report, business word, business games.

A management decision is a plan to resolve or eliminate a problem. Depending on the established terms and conditions of activity of subordinates, decisions may be:

· regulating - exclude independence and completely direct the activities of subordinates;

· orienting - to determine only the main points of activity, secondary problems are solved by subordinates independently;

To solve strategic management problems, strategic decisions are made, which contain ways to implement the tasks and the resources required for this. Strategic decisions are carried out through a set of tactical decisions for the practical implementation of subgoals provided for by the strategy. Strategic decisions are a set of rules that determine the general directions of the functioning and development of organizations, for example:

· assessment of the company's performance;

· interaction of the company with the external environment (carrying out appropriate competition policy, maintaining the share of sales in the product market by region);

· intra-organizational interaction between departments;

· operational regulation of current changes occurring in the organization’s activities.

Taking into account the long-term nature of strategic decisions, during their implementation there is a need to make adjustments related to current changes in the internal and external environment. This is ensured by the presence of feedback between objects and subjects of management. The successful implementation of strategic objectives presupposes their close linkage with tactical decisions that determine specific ways to implement strategies and the necessary line of behavior to achieve them.

The following requirements apply to management decisions:

· be real, i.e. focus on achievable goals;

· be realizable, i.e. do not contain unfeasible various reasons provisions;

· be carried out in real time, taking into account possible emergency situations;

· be resistant in efficiency to possible errors when selecting source data;

· be flexible when external or internal conditions change, i.e. provide for changes in goals and algorithms for achieving goals.

Management decisions have the following characteristic features:

· alternative - the ability to choose from several options;

· focus on the future;

· focus on the final results of the organization's activities;

· legality of decisions, managers must be vested with certain powers, which are recorded in official documents: agreements, contracts, regulations;

· innovativeness of methodology, technology, diagnostic and forecasting methods, organizational development parameters;

· socio-economic orientation;

· continuity due to the following properties of the management process: continuity, cyclicity, consistency, interconnectedness;

· the presence of integration, which is manifested in the impact of the solution on the structural parameters of the system and its main divisions;

· uncertainty in achieving the planned result and the possibility of losses;

· the presence of a synergistic effect, which manifests itself in the relationship between the main functions and process functions for decision making, providing an advantage in achieving the goal compared to a decision made outside the management process;

· reflectivity in the external environment (sectors of the economy, social, cultural, environmental spheres, public policy, standard of living of the population);

· personal aspect, the perception of the decision by subordinates is influenced by the authority of the leader.

The quality of management decisions, their successful implementation and obtaining a certain result depends on the combination of the following basic properties of management decisions:

· validity, which manifests itself in the need to take into account the entire set of factors and conditions associated with the development of a solution;

· efficiency, which shows the ratio of the expected and achieved economic and social effect, taking into account the costs of its development and implementation;

· timeliness, which is an important condition for effectiveness;

· consistency, which is expressed in compliance of the decision with regulatory documents and in agreement with previously made decisions;

· specificity, which manifests itself in a clear indication;

· simplicity, the solution should be simple in form and understandable in content.

The quality of the process of developing and implementing a management decision depends on: information, a set of management goals, development methods, management technology, the selected property of the development process, organizational audit, sets of objects included in the organization model, laws of management and organization, laws for the organization. In each specific situation, the development of management decisions is carried out in specific conditions characteristic of a given situation, taking into account factors that have a direct or indirect impact.

Factors influencing the quality level of management decisions can be divided into two groups.

1. Factors of a situational nature associated with awareness of the problem, alternatives for its solution and their consequences, which act at the stage preceding decision-making and contribute to the formation of the problem. These include: study of the situation, analysis and forecasts of the situation, methods used, management organization, etc.

2. Behavioral factors: motives, value orientations, level of requirements, willingness to take risks, which are manifested in the behavior of the manager and his employees during the development of management decisions.

The performance of an enterprise depends on the quality of management decisions. They must meet certain requirements, be based on the prevailing economic conditions, and be adopted in compliance with organizational and psychological prerequisites.

1.2 Classification of management decisions

Classification of management decisions is necessary to determine general and specific approaches to their development, implementation and evaluation, which makes it possible to improve their quality, efficiency and continuity. Management decisions can be classified in a variety of ways.

The most common are the following principles classifications:

1) by functional content;

2) by the nature of the tasks being solved (scope of action);

3) according to the management hierarchy;

4) by the nature of the development organization;

5) by the nature of the goals;

6) for reasons of occurrence;

7) according to the initial development methods;

8) according to organizational design.

Management decisions can be classified according to their functional content, i.e. in relation to general control functions for example:

· planning decisions;

· organizational;

· controlling;

· predictive.

Typically, such decisions affect, to one degree or another, all management functions, but in each of them it is possible to identify a main core associated with some basic function.

Another principle of classification is related to the nature of the problems being solved:

· economic;

· organizational;

· technological;

· technical;

· environmental and others.

Most often, management decisions are related not to one, but to a number of tasks, to one degree or another having a complex nature. Based on the levels of the management system hierarchy, management decisions are distinguished at the BS level: at the subsystem level; at the level of individual elements of the system. Typically, system-wide decisions are initiated, which are then brought to the elementary level, but the opposite option is also possible.

Depending on the organization of decision development, the following management decisions are distinguished:

sole persons;

) collegial;

c) collective.

The preference for the method of organizing the development of management decisions depends on many reasons: the competence of the manager, the level of qualifications of the team, the nature of the tasks. resources, etc.

By the nature of the goals, the decisions made can be presented as:

· current (operational);

· tactical;

· strategic.

Based on the reasons for their occurrence, management decisions are divided into:

· situational related to the nature of the emerging circumstances;

· by order (order) of higher authorities;

· program related to the inclusion of a given management object in a certain structure of program-target relations and activities;

· proactive systems associated with the manifestation of initiative, for example in the production of goods and services, intermediary activities;

· episodic and periodic arising from the periodicity of reproductive processes in the system (for example, seasonality of agricultural production, timber rafting along rivers, geological work).

An important classification approach is the initial methods for developing management decisions. These include:

· graphical, using graphic-analytical approaches (network models and methods, strip graphs, block diagrams, decomposition of large systems);

· mathematical methods. involving the formalization of ideas, relationships, proportions, deadlines, events, resources;

· heuristics associated with the widespread use of expert assessments, development of scenarios, and situational models.

According to the organizational design of management decisions they are divided into:

· tough, unambiguously defining the further path of their implementation;

· orienting, determining the direction of development of the system;

· flexible, changing in accordance with the conditions of operation and development of the system;

· normative, setting the parameters for the flow of processes in the system.

Since decisions are made by people, their character largely bears the imprint of the personality of the manager involved in their birth.

2. Practice of developing and making management decisions

2.1 Stages of developing management decisions

The process of developing management decisions can be represented as a circle around which the main stages revolve:

Rice. 3 Main stages of developing management decisions

Effective organization of management decisions allows you to achieve planned results.

Stage 1. Awareness of the need for a management solution. The need to make a management decision is associated with either a problem or an opportunity.

The problem arises when the organization's actual achievements are lower than planned, which means that some of its work projects require improvement.

Opportunity occurs when a leader sees the potential to achieve results beyond current ones.

Awareness of a problem or opportunity is the first stage of the process of developing a management decision and requires monitoring the parameters of the internal and external environment that deserve the attention of the manager.

Sources of information for understanding the need for a management decision are:

· financial reports,

· operational reports,

· unofficial sources,

· opinions on the state of current affairs of other managers and specialists, as well as their advice.

Stage 2. Diagnosis and situation analysis

Once a problem or opportunity comes to the manager's attention, there is a need to understand the details of the situation.

Diagnosis is the stage of developing a management decision, at which the manager analyzes the main cause-and-effect relationships of a particular situation.

You should not immediately move on to developing options for management solutions without first thoroughly studying the causes of the problem.

Kepner and Trego, who conducted extensive research on the development of management decisions by managers, recommended asking the following questions to clarify the underlying causes of events:

· How severe is the state of instability in which the company finds itself?

· When did it happen?

· Where did it happen?

· How did it come about?

· Who did this happen to?

· How quickly should the problem be resolved?

· What are the cause-and-effect relationships?

· What actions led to undesirable results?

Answers to such questions help to better understand what really happened and why.

For example, General Motors executives are trying to diagnose the underlying causes of the company's recent failures.

The problem is urgent because:

· arrived,

market share

· and the share price decreases,

· and the giant corporation itself is on the verge of bankruptcy.

Executives examine the variety of issues facing GM, determine the nature of the decline in key performance indicators, and consider the relationship between various factors, such as:

· changing consumer tastes,

· rising gasoline prices, making large cars less attractive,

· increase in pension contributions for employees,

· increased competition and growth in machine production volumes in countries with low level salaries such as China,

· presence of excess production capacity and high costs,

· poor central planning and ineffective control systems, which increasingly plunge the company into a state of crisis.

Stage 3. Development of options for management decisions

Once the problem or opportunity is recognized and analyzed, the manager begins to consider options for future action.

Thus, the next stage of the management decision development process is to generate possible alternative management solutions that will meet the needs of the situation and eliminate the identified shortcomings.

Research suggests that limited exploration of alternatives is a major cause of poor management decisions in organizations.

For programmable solutions that arise in response to regularly recurring organizational (current) problems, the search for feasible options for developing management solutions does not cause difficulties, since in fact they are already provided for by the rules and procedures of the organization.

However, non-programmable management decisions that are made in response to unique situations require the development of a new course of action.

For management decisions made under conditions of high uncertainty, managers can develop only one or two specific management solutions that will satisfactorily cope with the problem.

Alternative management decisions can be considered as tools for reducing the discrepancy between the current and desired results of the organization.

For example, to increase sales volumes, McDonald's executives considered options such as

· using “imaginary” buyers and conducting surprise checks to improve the quality of food and the level of service;

· motivating franchisees to invest in new equipment and new programs;

· conducting research and development outside the experimental kitchen-lab and encouraging franchisees to develop new dishes;

· closing some retail outlets to eliminate the possibility of cannibalization of own sales, that is, the negative impact of sales of one product to the detriment of another product within the same enterprise and brand.

Stage 4. Choosing the best management solution

After developing several feasible options for management decisions, you need to choose one of them.

This stage involves selecting the most promising management solution from several possible courses of action.

The best option is the one that provides a management solution that is most consistent with the current goals and values ​​of the organization and allows you to achieve the desired results when minimum costs resources.

The manager tries to choose a management decision that is associated with minimal risk and uncertainty, although the right choice is also possible when focusing solely on goals and values.

The choice of the right management decision is largely determined by the personality of the manager.

The willingness to take on additional risk in the face of the possibility of a higher reward is called risk appetite.

The manager's decision in each specific case depends on the results of the analysis of profits and costs, which can be performed for any management decision.

Stage 5. Implementation of the selected management decision

The stage of implementing a management decision involves the use of managerial and administrative abilities and persuasion skills for the practical implementation of the chosen management decision.

The ultimate success of the chosen management decision depends on whether it can be turned into concrete actions.

Sometimes a management decision never becomes a reality due to the fact that the manager lacks the strength or resources to implement the plan.

To successfully implement a management decision, it may be necessary to hold a business meeting with people who are affected by the management decision, which means that the manager must have

· communication skills,

· ability to motivate employees and

· leadership qualities

When employees see that the manager does not forget about his management decisions and monitors the process of their implementation, they become more inclined to take positive actions.

If the manager lacks the ability or desire to implement the management decision made, then the chosen alternative cannot be implemented to the benefit of the organization.

Stage 6. Evaluation of the results of implementing a management decision and feedback

During the evaluation stage, managers collect information that tells them how successfully a management decision was implemented and whether it achieved its goals.

Feedback It has great importance, because management decision making is an endless process.

2.2 Management decision making

An important task of management accounting is the synthesis and transmission of information useful for managers to make quality management decisions.

The development of effective solutions is a prerequisite for ensuring the competitiveness of products, the formation of rational organizational structures, the implementation of correct personnel policies, the creation of a positive image, etc.

By synthesizing various components, management decisions act as a way of constant influence of the control subsystem on the managed system, which leads to the achievement of set goals.

The process of making management decisions is an activity that requires high qualifications, practical experience, and developed intuition. Many solutions are unique, and the process of developing them cannot be regulated by strict rules. Nevertheless, it is possible to distinguish certain stages in the process of making management decisions.

1. Problem occurs.

2. Determination of alternative courses of action.

3. Analysis of the impact of each alternative on business transactions(costs, resource savings and financial results of business operations are calculated).

4. Decision making - choosing the best alternative.

5. Analysis of the consequences of decisions.

At all stages of the management decision-making process, the accountant provides the organization's management with the necessary information. For these purposes, certain accounting procedures and a special reporting system must be used. Decision making involves a comparative assessment of a number of alternatives and the selection of the optimal option that best suits the organization's goals.

All reasons for choosing one of the options under consideration are divided into two groups: quantitative and qualitative factors.

Quantitative factors take a numerical expression (costs, expenses). Qualitative ones cannot be measured quantitatively (product quality, level of satisfaction of consumer tastes, stability of relationships with suppliers, etc.). When making decisions, both factors must be analyzed.

The process of developing a management decision consists of comparing two or more possible solutions to a problem and choosing the best one.

The relevant approach allows, in the process of making a management decision, to concentrate attention only on relevant information, which facilitates and speeds up the process of developing the best decision.

Relevant costs and revenues are the expected future costs and revenues that differ across alternatives.

Relevant information is essential for decision making, i.e. this is data that should be taken into account. Irrelevant information is irrelevant data about costs and revenues. They can lead to making an erroneous decision, reducing efficiency and increasing the complexity of the decision-making process.

Two rules of relevance.

Information for the manager must provide the right decisions.

Information should be presented in a form that is easy to understand and should not be redundant.

When developing and making management decisions, it is advisable to use the following methods.

1. Traditional methods are used when decisions are made based on personal experience or based on the results of special economic calculations (used in typical standard situations). The advantages of these methods are simplicity and provenness, but the disadvantage is the lack of solutions when production becomes more complex.

2. Economic-mathematical methods are based on the use of mathematical and economic methods in solving practical problems (economic-statistical methods, methods of economic cybernetics, optimization methods and econometrics).

These methods are used to a limited extent, since it is not always possible to build a mathematical model of the problem; they do not take into account social, organizational and psychological factors that cannot be measured mathematically.

3. Special methods:

methods of expert assessments, which are based on quantification phenomena and processes (brainstorming);

· improvement of expert assessments with consistent refinement of the task;

· heuristic methods that are based on experience and logic.

These methods are effective in solving problems under conditions of risk and uncertainty.

4. System-targeted methods are used to solve related strategic problems. These include:

· methods of system analysis;

· decomposition - a method of dividing a system into parts to identify the relationships between them;

· system diagnostics - a method of studying each of the elements to identify bottlenecks;

· program-targeted methods (after defining a global goal, a program for achieving it is developed in the form of a tree of goals and measures are determined to achieve lower-order goals).

2.3 The role of the manager in the process of making management decisions

Three main types of workers are involved in the process of preparing and making decisions: system analysts, managers themselves, as well as experts involved in resolving individual issues on certain problems, in cases where system analysts are not able to independently answer the questions that arise during the process of developing a solution .

The main work on developing a solution is carried out by system analysts. The concept of a systems analyst is interpreted in a broad sense and includes management staff preparing the solution, specialists from information and analytical services, economic and other departments of the organization. System analysts must be fully proficient in modern analysis methods; managers must have a systematic approach to decision making and have a general understanding of the methods and tools used in the process of preparing and making decisions.

The manager plays the main role in decision making. He makes decisions based on his preferences and is responsible for them.

In the decision-making process, the following main functions of a manager can be distinguished.

Firstly, the manager must manage the decision-making process, organizing this process, attracting the necessary specialists, providing their work with the required resources, determining the timing of decision-making, and monitoring their work.

Secondly, the manager puts forward a problem for solution, participates in its specification and selection of evaluation criteria. The ability to correctly define and pose a task in an extremely complex and contradictory situation is an essential responsibility of a leader, the main creative part of his work.

Third, he does the hard work of making the decision itself.

Fourthly, the manager organizes the implementation of the decision, managing the work at the stage of implementing the decision.

Fifthly, the manager must take part in the decision-making process on certain issues of developing a decision as a specialist, an expert. Indeed, a qualified manager can understand certain issues better than systems analysts (defining a problem, setting goals, identifying various priorities, etc.). The manager's preference system is the main one when choosing the best solution. It is better to familiarize system analysts with certain aspects of this system before making a final decision.

The development of a solution is carried out jointly by the manager and system analysts. One of the most important tasks of systems analysts is to assist the manager in identifying the goals of his decision-making activities - what they are or what they should be. Exchange of views helps clarify old goals and identify new goals. System analysts help to correctly outline approaches to defining goals, carry out the process of identifying them more efficiently, applying certain logical principles, introducing, where possible, quantitative methods assessments.

Involvement of managers in analytical research of problems is an important factor for success. The participation of the manager in the formation of criteria, definition and ranking of goals has a decisive impact on the implementation of results. In 80% of cases, developments carried out with the involvement of managers are found practical use. This is 2 times higher than the value of the implementation rate of developments without their participation.

The manager must make decisions based on accurate, verified data, on options worked out in detail by system analysts, in the variety of which the optimal option can rarely be detected at first glance. And the manager’s intuition is used only in addition, but not as a replacement for the results prepared by system analysts. System analysts consider decision-making as an independent process, but for managers, decision-making is only part of the entire management process, where it is necessary to take into account both objective and subjective factors influencing the solution of the problem.

The manager selects the only solution option from those proposed by system analysts. He must promptly request analysis data from system analysts, even if incomplete. A decision not made on time is a more serious mistake, fraught with more serious consequences, than a decision made but containing some errors.

The decision is a direct product of the labor of a manager of any level and rank. The functions of preparing, making and implementing decisions underlie many organizational and procedural schemes, regulations and job descriptions that determine the content of the activities of individual organizations and their personnel. The rational use of labor by decision makers and system analysts has a decisive influence on the effectiveness of management decisions.

3. Improving the management decision-making process

3.1 Application of a scientific approach to the decision-making process

The process of making management decisions, as one of the main aspects of the management activities of an organization, is present at every level of management and, in addition, is an integral component in the processing of almost any information within a given organization. In addition, the decision-making process is a kind of dominant, that is, it acts as the most important and obligatory element of managerial functioning, performed at the stage of the emergence of the categories “What and how to do?” The higher the quality of the management decision made (regardless of the volume of implementation: on the scale of the organization itself or in a separate part of it), the more effective the functioning of the organization as a whole will be. This factor is directly related to the level position of organizational management, i.e. the significance and weight of the decision made and implemented directly affects not only the economic and technical performance indicators, but also the socio-psychological aspects of the work of the organization’s “human resource”, in Therefore, increased demands are placed on the decision-making process (including various types of integrated approaches being proposed). Thus, knowledge of the methods and techniques of the scientific approach to the act of decision-making contributes to the maximum extent to the optimal and effective process of their implementation in the functioning of the organization.

The head of the team participating in the development and adoption of decisions makes a choice of one option or another subjectively, based on purely personal preferences (experience, evaluative visions), thereby accepting full responsibility for the possible negative consequences of making this decision. The presence of a subjective factor is reinforced by a certain degree of uncertainty, as well as by the nature of thinking and the psychological orientation of the decision-maker. At the same time, the leader, along with the volitional function, performs a mental act, during which analysis, evaluation, synthesis of possible solutions, explanation and development of an optimal and rationally justified solution are carried out. At the next stage, the decision maker (without taking into account the position at the hierarchical level) carries out a motivated process, caused by the influence on the people around him to perform a certain type of activity, during which the possible outcomes of the developed decision options are assessed from the point of view of motivation for the behavior of the decision maker. The motivational process leads to the development of the necessary attitudes, which, in turn, contribute to the formation of an indicative position of the decision-maker’s environment, which directly affects the behavioral aspects of this environment. The necessary attitude, together with the indicative position, forms the foundation that determines the development of the volitional function of the decision-making process.

The process of making a motivated decision is more fully realized on the basis of a thought process justified by logical constructs using certain methods and means: integrated calculations, mathematical modeling, data architecture, physical and mathematical experiments, etc. In addition, it is necessary to remember about subconsciously -logical combination, when the prevalence of logical or intuitive thinking (intuition and logic are the basis for decision-making) directly affects the result of decision-making. Thus, in the process of developing and making management decisions, it is necessary to distinguish three main approaches:

1. Intuitive approach.

2. Judgment-based approach.

3. Rational approach.

When using an intuitive approach to developing and making decisions, the initial motivation for choice is based solely on the feeling of the correctness of the chosen solution option. At the same time, the manager does not carry out any mental activity in order to assess positive and negative factors and take into account possible variations, analyze them and select a specific, only correct solution. Most often, for certain reasons, the leader does not fully take into account the current situation, but only makes his choice. That is, without committing any logical construction, relying on his own experience, the decision-maker implements the process of cognition of truth - makes a choice based on intuition.

Rice. 4. The main components of the development and decision-making process with an intuitive approach

These methods (for example, the brainstorming method) are widely used in practice when solving complex problem problems. Their use is appropriate in the formation of strategic plans in the social, scientific, political spheres or in the process of developing consultative recommendations on unstudied, poorly differentiated issues. Among the situations that arise, the solution of which is appropriate based on an intuitive approach, the following are distinguished:

· situations caused by a fairly high degree of uncertainty;

· undifferentiated, limited to a certain period of time for developing and making a decision and accompanied by a disturbed psychophysical state of the decision-maker;

· unknown, previously unheard-of situations, characterized by the absence of a specific mechanism for solving the problem;

· the presence of mutually exclusive alternatives to solve the problem;

· the need to develop and make decisions of a personal nature.

These types of problem situations determine the fact that an intuition-based approach is used in most cases at the highest level of management. Among the indisputable advantages of this approach are simplicity, speed of decision-making, and general accessibility; and the disadvantage can be considered the low quality productivity of the decisions made due to the greater likelihood of making irrational decisions. In improving the quality of decision-making based on an intuitive approach, the development of intuitive and logical abilities plays a significant role, which is to a certain extent facilitated by methods developed and used at the modern level in psychology, cybernetics, and medicine.

The judgment-based approach is based on sufficient positive experience when selecting and implementing the most effective mutually exclusive solutions in problem situations similar to this one. Consequently, existing positive experience in solving problematic problems can serve as a model for developing and making decisions in the current situation, provided that similar results are obtained. This approach is recommended for use in cases where similar, recurring situations arise, which are the main component of activities at the middle level of organization management. They are identified as standard, and when developing solutions, the main goal is to reduce the likelihood of errors, as well as to minimize the time spent on development and decision-making.

Rice. 5 The process of developing and making decisions using a judgment-based approach.

This approach is ineffective when rare, exceptional, non-elementary, complex situations arise, since in this case the manager does not have the appropriate experience on the basis of which it is possible to choose a solution justified by logical thinking. In addition, the excessive nature of using this approach when developing and making decisions contributes to the development of monotonous, straightforward thinking in the decision-maker in the sphere of making a certain type of decision, which largely negates new, perhaps more effective options decisions. In the future, this process consciously or unconsciously limits the range of both the development of new areas of activity and possible ways of development of the organization as a whole.

The use of a rational (optimal) approach in the process of development and decision-making is due to the implementation of an objective in-depth analysis. To find a solution to the problem that has arisen, a certain sequence of performing the relevant stages is necessary. The process of developing and making rational decisions can be depicted as a five-step structured chain:

1. Diagnosis of the problem

2. Formulation of restrictions and criteria for decision making.

3. Identifying alternative solutions

4. Evaluation of alternative solutions

5. Final choice of solution

Rice. 6 Stages rational approach to the development and decision-making process

Diagnosing a problem begins with consciously identifying the problems that arise and the opportunities that are available. The bulk of the problems that arise include: insufficient profits, low quality, productivity indicators and product sales; conflicts and staff turnover. On the one hand, identifying specific factors helps to identify the problem as such, and on the other hand, it helps to identify the true root causes of the general decline in the effective performance of the organization. In such cases, an analysis of relevant information is carried out (regardless of its nature: external or internal) in order to further determine the causal relationships and features of the emergence of a problem situation in the organization. Analysis of the problem of a general decline in the effective performance of an organization allows not only to identify the causal nature of the issue, but also to develop a specific solution to it, taking into account subsequent (possible) changes (variations).

Thus, the choice of approach to the process of developing and making management decisions, regardless of the scale of their implementation, determines and has a direct impact on the quality functionality and effectiveness of the entire organization, which confirms the necessary nature of generating, evaluating, and analyzing decision options, both at the highest level of management of the organization and and in the activities of middle management.

3.2 Methods and models for optimizing management decisions

Optimizing a solution is the process of searching through many factors that influence the result. The optimal solution is the most effective solution among all alternative options, selected according to some optimization criterion.

Since the optimization process is expensive, it is advisable to use it when solving strategic and tactical problems. Operational problems should be solved using, as a rule, simple, heuristic methods.

Optimization methods: analysis, forecasting, modeling.

A model is a representation of a system object or idea in some form distinct from the integrity itself. It is a simplified image of a specific life (managerial) situation. In other words, the models reflect real events, circumstances, etc. in a certain way. There are a number of reasons for using a model instead of trying to directly interact with the real world:

· complexity of the real world (the real world of an organization is extremely complex and the actual number of changes related to a specific problem significantly exceeds the capabilities of any person and can be comprehended by simplifying the real world using modeling);

· experimentation (there are many management situations in which it is desirable to try and experimentally test alternative solutions to a problem;

· orientation of management to the future (it is impossible to observe a phenomenon that does not yet exist and may never take place, as well as to conduct direct experiments. However, many managers strive to consider only real and tangible ones, and this must ultimately be expressed in their turn to what something apparently.

Modeling is the only systematic way to date to see options for the future and determine the potential consequences of alternative solutions, which allows them to be objectively compared).

Building a model is a process. The main stages of this process are problem statement, construction, validation, application and updating of the model.

Like all tools and methods, models can lead to errors. The effectiveness of the model can be reduced by a number of potential errors:

· unreliable initial assumptions;

· information restrictions;

fear of users

· excessive cost

Typical applications of linear programming in production management:

· integrated production planning (drawing up production schedules that minimize total costs, taking into account costs due to changes in interest rates, specified restrictions on labor resources and inventory levels);

· product assortment planning (determining the optimal product assortment, in which each type has its own costs and resource requirements);

· routing of product production (determining the optimal technological route for manufacturing a product, which must be sequentially passed through several processing centers, with each center operation characterized by its own costs and productivity);

· technological process control (minimizing the yield of chips when cutting steel, waste leather or fabric in a roll or panel);

· inventory regulation (determining the optimal combination of products in a warehouse or storage);

· production scheduling (drawing up schedules that minimize costs, taking into account the costs of maintaining inventories, paying for overtime work and external orders);

· product distribution planning (drawing up an optimal shipment schedule, taking into account the distribution of products between production plants and warehouses, warehouses and retail stores);

· determining the optimal location of a new plant (determining the best location by estimating the costs of transportation between alternative locations for the new plant and the places of its supply and sale of finished products);

· calendar planning of transport (minimization of costs of supplying trucks for loading and transport vessels to loading berths);

· distribution of workers (minimizing costs when distributing workers among machines and workplaces);

· material reloading (minimizing costs when routing the movement of materials reloading equipment, for example, forklifts, between plant departments and delivering materials from an open warehouse to places of their processing on trucks of different carrying capacity with different fuel characteristics).

Forecasting is a method that uses both accumulated experience and current assumptions about the future to determine it.

Quantitative methods can be used for forecasting when there is evidence that past activity has followed a pattern that can be continued in the future, and when available information is sufficient to identify statistically significant trends or relationships. In addition, the manager must know how to use a quantitative model and remember that the benefits of making a more effective decision must outweigh the costs of creating the model. Two typical quantitative forecasting methods are time series analysis and causal modeling.

Conclusion

As a result of writing this course work, we can say that the goal was achieved. From this work, the following conclusions can be drawn.

Decision making is a process leading to the emergence of a product of managerial labor, which is an important part of management activity. According to leading management experts, decision making is both a science and an art. When making a decision, the manager uses professionalism, intelligence, knowledge, intuition, experience, and the results of an analysis of a specific situation.

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MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE OF THE RF

State Educational Institution of Secondary Professional Education "Novosibirsk Trade and Economic University"

COURSE WORK

Discipline: Management

On the topic: Decision making in the process of managing an organization

Novosibirsk 2009

Introduction………………………………………………………………………………3

1. The role of management decisions in the activities of a manager………………….........4

1.1. Types and types of management decisions………………………...…………………4

1.2. Management decision-making process……………………...……………..8

1.3. Optimization of management decisions……………………………...………..13

2.Analysis of the effectiveness of management decisions…………………18

2.1 Characteristics of the enterprise………………………………………………………18

2.2. Types of management decisions made at the enterprise………………..26

2.3.Analysis of the effectiveness of preparation for making and organizing the implementation of management decisions at the enterprise………………………………………………………..29

Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………….33

List of references………………………………………………………...35

Application

Introduction

Today, no one doubts that it is the optimal management decision (if this means not only the content of the decision, but also its implementation) that determines the fate of the enterprise.

How to make a manager’s decision optimal under various conditions, at what level of the management hierarchy should such a decision be made for strategic tasks, and at what level for tactical and operational tasks, what ensures the optimality of a management decision and which decision is considered optimal, these and other problems need to be solved by the manager modern enterprise.

The solution to these problems and their significance in the activities of the enterprise influenced the choice of the topic of the course work.

In foreign literature on management, the concept of “adaptive corporation” has been used for 15 years, that is, it is a company that is most capable of meeting the constantly changing demands of the market. But such a corporation must have an accompanying composition of business units, an adaptive” organizational management structure, and “adaptive” management. In turn, the creation of such a corporation and the “adaptability” of the most important components of its management system are both the result of optimal management decisions and the conditions for making such decisions, which confirms the relevance of the chosen topic.

The subject of the study of this course work was the process of making management decisions, as well as the role of management decisions in the activities of a manager.

The purpose of writing this work is to master practical skills in developing a management solution for a specific situation. The object of the study was ZAO Sibiryachka, which is engaged in wholesale and retail trade of technical equipment and needs to expand the scope of its activities in order to attract additional clientele. The analyzed period covers two years of activity of the enterprise under study: 2007-2008.

CHAPTER 1. The role of management decisions in the activities of a manager

1.1. Types and types of management decisions

For a manager, decision making is a constant and very responsible job. The need to make decisions permeates everything that a leader at any level does, formulating goals and achieving them. Since the decisions made affect not only the manager, but also other people and in many cases the entire organization, understanding the nature and essence of decision making is extremely important for anyone who wants to succeed in the field of management.

Ultimately, a management decision is presented as a result of management activity in a broader sense; a management decision is considered as the main type of management work, a set of interrelated, purposeful and logically consistent management actions that ensure the implementation of management tasks.

They can be classified according to numerous criteria. However, the determining factor is the conditions in which the decision is made. Usually decisions are made in an environment of certainty, risk, and uncertainty.

Under conditions of certainty, the manager is relatively confident in the results of each of the alternatives.

In an environment of risk (uncertainty), the most a manager can do is determine the probability of success for each alternative.

In this case, the organization’s own culture, values ​​and traditions are important. Employees are exposed to the culture of the organization and therefore do not consider options to address it.

There are other criteria for classifying management decisions:

· according to the duration of the consequences of the decision: long-, medium- and short-term;

· by frequency of adoption: one-time (random) and recurring;

· by breadth of coverage: general (applicable to all employees) and highly specialized;

· according to the form of preparation: individual, group and collective decisions;

· in terms of complexity, simple and complex;

· according to the rigidity of regulation: contour, structured and algorithmic.

Contour decisions only approximately indicate the scheme of action of subordinates and give them wide scope for choosing techniques and methods for their implementation.

Structured ones involve strict regulation of the actions of subordinates. Initiative on their part can only manifest itself in resolving secondary issues.

Algorithmic - extremely strictly regulate the activities of subordinates and practically exclude their initiative.

Of particular interest is the classification of management decisions given by M. Meskon, M. Albert and F. Khedouri, who distinguish organizational, intuitive and rational decisions.

An organizational decision is a choice that a manager must make in order to fulfill the responsibilities of his position. The purpose of an organizational decision is to ensure movement towards the goals set for the organization.

Organizational decisions can be divided into two groups:

In a programmed decision, the number of possible alternatives is limited and the choice must be made within the directions given by the organization.

Unprogrammed decisions are decisions that require new situations to a certain extent, they are not internally constructed or involve unknown factors. Unprogrammed decisions include decisions on the following questions: What should be the goals of the organization? how to improve products? how to improve the structure? and so on.

In practice, few management decisions turn out to be programmed or unprogrammed in pure form. In fact, the process of making organizational decisions is very closely related to the process of managing the organization as a whole.

In the literature, classifications of management decisions are based on a variety of bases. One of the classifications of A.I. Prigogine is to take into account the contribution of the subject of the decision to organizational transformations. According to the author, all management decisions in an organization can be divided into:

1) strictly conditioned (deterministic)

2) decisions that are weakly dependent on the subject.

The first usually include either so-called standardized decisions (due to the above-adopted instructions and orders), or secondarily determined by the location of a higher organization. This type of decisions practically does not depend on the qualities and orientation of the leader.

Another type of decisions is the so-called proactive decisions, where the qualities of a leader leave a serious imprint on the nature of the decisions made. These include decisions related to both local changes in the organization (reward, punishment) and changes in the mechanisms, structure, and goals of the organization. An initiative decision is usually considered as a choice of behavioral alternative from several possible ones, each of which entails a number of positive and negative consequences. Among the factors influencing the quality of decisions are: the competence of the staff, the business and personal qualities of the manager, his role (official, functional, group, civil, family) positions.

Among the listed factors, a large place is given to the problem of reliability of communication information and interference that occurs during the transmission of information. Among the latter, a large place is given to provisions related to the specific role position and interests of those who process information in the process of its passage from the lower tiers of the organization to the subject of the decision.

One of the important factors influencing the quality of management decisions is the number of tiers in the organization, an increase in which leads to distortion of information when preparing a decision, distortion of orders coming from the subject of management, and increases the sluggishness of the organization.

The same factor contributes to the delay in information received by the subject of the decision. This determines the constant desire to reduce the number of management tiers (levels) of the organization.

The problem of the rationality of decisions made has acquired no less importance in the theory of organizations. If the first theorists of the sociology of management considered the preparation of a decision as a completely rational process, then, starting from the mid-50s. An approach has become widespread, according to which this process is considered limitedly rational, because it is determined by sociocultural and human factors. Increasingly, the role of the manager’s intuition is being noted when preparing decisions. A major problem associated with organizational effectiveness is also the problem of implementing decisions.

The efficiency of enterprises depends on the quality of management decisions. This determines the importance of each responsible employee of the management apparatus, and even more so managers, mastering theoretical knowledge and skills in developing management decisions.

2 Decision functions in the methodology and organization of the management process.

A management decision at an enterprise is a creative act of a management subject (individual or group person), which determines the program of the team’s activities to effectively resolve an urgent problem based on knowledge of the objective laws of the functioning of the managed system and analysis of information about its state.

3 The influence of managerial psychology on the process of developing and implementing management decisions

The social content of the chosen method of action is important, since it affects the life of the manager and everyone who works with him, that is, the interest of the organization and the team. Management decision in everyday practice is a product of managerial labor and human mental activity.
At the beginning of any business lies an idea, which is transformed into a thought and, under the influence of the external environment and internal factors of a person, turns into a belief. Conviction, strengthened by concentration, feelings and attention, is realized in the specific actions of the manager. If one agrees with the external environment, which strengthens a person’s vitality, the actions taken lead to success. Repeated successes build mastery or the art of decision making. Art in this context refers to a high degree of skill of the decision maker (DM).
In the daily practice of facility management, many decisions, both relatively simple and complex, must be made. The ability to “come up” with ideas, think creatively, focus on problems, be self-confident, coordinate decisions with colleagues and senior management and achieve their successful implementation are qualities that contribute to a manager’s success. Such a manager is distinguished by certain internal and external characteristics.
Psychological signs of a successful leader:
external
- they recognize him at first sight
- there's something about it
- it carries a creative charge
- he has an open look
- from the first words it is clear that he will achieve results
internal:
- inspired by the spirit of initiative, courage, joy of work
- has his own views on life
- does not believe in intrigue, lies, chance
- believes in the effectiveness of his efforts
- believes in the ability to overcome difficulties
- believes in the driving force of the goals set
Managerial thinking must be specific. The manager needs to imagine a complex whole and see its constituent elements. The most important properties of managerial thinking are the ability to take risks and personal responsibility for the outcome of the case. Each decision is generated in the process of thinking, which correlates the individual’s capabilities with the specific situation at hand.
The thinking of leaders has many features. In their composition, along with others, stand out
depth of thinking - indicates the ability to foresee cause-and-effect relationships that are furthest from the surface;
breadth of thinking - reflects the ability to see the diversity of interconnected phenomena as a whole, without isolating any problem from them and without getting carried away only by it;
flexibility of thinking - manifested in the ability to deviate from favorite, proven stereotypical solutions; the ability, based on the current situation, to find an original solution;
speed of thinking is the “speed” of thought from analyzing a problem to formulating a solution.
Psychologists say: whoever stands at the origins of management decisions largely determines the effectiveness of the team.
People may not have managerial needs or have different motivational forces. There are many who see their life prospects in leading people and make significant efforts to advance in their careers. The presence of managerial needs is a necessary condition for appointing a candidate for leadership activities. They manifest themselves in the desire to influence people around them in order to direct their efforts to solve specific problems.
In addition to the needs, it is necessary to have appropriate management abilities. The most important of them are diagnostic, creative and organizational.
Diagnostic abilities allow you to form a clear picture of the present and future of the organization; creative - to develop solutions that are adequate to the tasks of the enterprise; organizational - to ensure their implementation. Based on the needs and abilities in the process of study and subsequent practical activities, the manager develops an individual (reflecting his personal capabilities) management concept.

4 Classification of management decisions.

The management process is dynamic. Changes in the external and internal environment give rise to the need to make various management decisions. The main factors influencing the organization and functioning of the system are technical, technological, socio-economic and regional. In this regard, there are two groups of tasks that require solutions: functional and situational.

Based on the source of origin, decisions are divided into proactive and prescribed. In the psychological aspect, the greatest difficulty is the situation of developing a solution according to instructions, since the systematic “imposition” of decisions can harm the manifestation of people’s initiative.

5. Programmable and non-programmable management solutions
The decision is the choice of one of the available alternatives.
Organizational decisions are the alternatives that a manager must choose to fulfill the responsibilities of his position in the organization that, when actually implemented, will provide the greatest contribution to achieving the organization's primary goal. Organizational decisions are divided into programmable and non-programmable.
A programmable decision is achieved as a result of the decision maker going through a certain sequence of stages (algorithm). The number of possible alternatives is limited, and the choice must meet a number of requirements defined by the organization. Programmable solutions reduce the likelihood of error, save time and are suitable for situations that regularly arise in an organization.
Non-programmable decisions are made in new situations, unstructured in nature and involving unknown factors, when it is impossible to determine in advance a specific sequence of stages. Decisions of this type include decisions regarding the goals of the organization, ways to improve its products, improve the management structure, increase employee motivation, etc. In each such situation, the cause of the problem may be many factors, and the manager has many choices.
In practice, purely programmable and non-programmable solutions are rare. They typically represent the two extremes of a continuum, with most solutions falling somewhere in between. For example, programmable decisions are very rarely structured so as to completely exclude the initiative of the individual making them, and the process of the most complex decision is sometimes helped by programming methodology.

6. Features of intuitive solutions
An intuitive decision is a choice based solely on what the individual believes to be correct. A person does not compare the pros and cons, he simply makes a decision. This is insight or the “sixth” sense.
A large number of studies have revealed the strong dependence of decisions made by top management on intuition.
In a complex organizational situation, there are thousands of choices. Relying on intuition, a manager acts under the influence of the moment, but statistics show that the chances of making the right choice without using logic at all are very small.

7. Decisions Based on Judgment
Judgment-based decisions appear intuitive because the logic behind them is not immediately apparent. This is a choice based on knowledge and experience. A person uses knowledge about what happened to him previously in similar situations to predict the results of different alternatives in current conditions. Based on common sense, he chooses an option that has proven successful in the past. That is why employers pay close attention to the length and work experience of candidates for vacant positions.
A decision based on judgment is formalized in the manager's head, so the decision is made quickly and at minimal cost. But it is not without its shortcomings - nothing is more vague than common sense.
The decision cannot be based on judgment if the situation is completely new: launching a new product on the market, developing new technology or the introduction of a fundamentally new remuneration system. At the same time, the unarmed human mind is not able to comprehend and take into account a large number of new factors.
In addition, based on experience, a manager may not notice a new alternative that could be more effective than known options or simply avoid new areas in which he is not guaranteed success.
However, in many cases a manager can significantly increase the likelihood the right choice, approaching the decision-making process from a rational perspective.

8. The process of making a rational management decision
A rational decision is made based on an objective analytical process and is not dependent on past experience.
Stages of making a rational decision:

1. Diagnosis of the problem (recognizing symptoms of difficulties, identifying relevant information).

9. Basic requirements for a management decision
The main requirement for a management decision is its effectiveness - positive effect, obtained as a result of implementing the decision. If the maximum positive effect is achieved with a minimum amount of resources involved under these conditions, then such a solution can be considered optimal.
Also, the decision must be made promptly, i.e. adoption and implementation of the decision must fit within a certain time frame. Otherwise, the effectiveness of the solution may greatly decrease, or the implementation of the decision with a delay may cause harm.
Finally, the consequences of implementing the decision must be productive – i.e. bring real benefits that can be felt, measured or compared.

10. Conditions for the development of high-quality SD.
High-quality SD is understood as a set of properties of a solution that satisfy a specific consumer, ensuring the reality of its implementation, successful implementation and obtaining a certain effect. The main properties of high-quality SD include:
- validity (determine taking into account the entire set of factors and conditions associated with the development of a solution);
- efficiency (reflects the ratio of the expected and achieved economic and social effect with the costs of developing and implementing SD; in the practice of enterprises, an indicator is used that indirectly assesses the quality of decisions made through the number of decisions implemented);
To ef. = (URk – Urn / URpr) * 100.
URk – the number of completed quality solutions; Urn – the number of poor-quality decisions made; URpr – total number of decisions made;
- timeliness (decisions must be made exactly at the time they are needed);
- consistency (expresses the need for preliminary coordination of each decision with those previously adopted in a given organization at all levels of the management structure, as well as with regulatory documents of government bodies);
- competence (the decision must be made by a person who has legal grounds for this, who has the appropriate authority and within the framework of his rights);
- specificity (reflected in the organization of the process of implementing decisions, namely, in clear instructions regarding: who, what, when and by what means should be carried out);
- simplicity and clarity;
- compliance of the decision with the forces and means of its implementation.

Conditions and factors:

The conditions for the development of high-quality SD are directly related to the knowledge and abilities of the manager (subjective element), as well as to certain objective provisions that the manager must take into account (external, internal factors, laws of functioning of the managed system).

Reasons for making poor quality decisions:
- a large volume of decisions made, as a result of which it is difficult to ensure high degree their validity;
- distortion of the purpose of the decision in the process of its movement through hierarchical levels;
- insufficient development of technology for preparing and making decisions;
- insufficient information support for the decision-making process;
- making decisions under the influence of emotions;
- ignoring the variety of factors affecting the company’s activities;
- ignoring the likelihood of risk and actions to prevent its consequences;
- lack of a procedure for involving the contractor in the process of developing solutions;
- insufficient specification of various elements of the solution development and implementation process;
- wishful thinking.

Improving the quality of SD is facilitated by the correct organization of their development and implementation. To do this, the following organizational issues are resolved: where and who makes the decision (the decision must be made at the level of management whose competence includes this range of issues); type of decisions made various levels management (the closer the manager is to production, the smaller the scale of his work, the more operational and specific decisions there are); the time required to make a decision after receiving all the necessary information (operational decisions can and should be made in the shortest possible time, and long-term ones should be well thought out); the system for processing and submitting decisions (must be clearly worked out); a system for monitoring the implementation of decisions made and checking their effectiveness after the fact.

The high importance of information used to develop management decisions determines the requirements for it: reliability, completeness, timeliness, brevity, clarity, consistency, etc.

Methods of collecting information can be informal or formal. The first group includes methods of obtaining information through direct communication with subordinates, colleagues, clients, and business partners. However, the dynamism of market situations required acceleration of the processes of collecting, transmitting, processing information, and creating new information technologies.

Computerization of the decision-making process is a necessity due to the modern needs of management activities. These are integral technological systems for making management decisions, which are characterized by: - ​​new technologies of computer communication networks (based on local and distribution); - new technologies for information processing based on personal computers and automated workstations (PC and AWP);

Paperless technology, eliminating paper as an information carrier; - technology for using artificial intelligence in the decision-making process based on simulated systems with various forms representation of the situation, expert systems, knowledge, etc.

The problem of electronic espionage and the need to protect information from unauthorized access to it are, however, relevant in the domestic economy.

Which system is considered secure? If all operations in a company's management system are carried out according to strictly defined rules that ensure the immediate protection of objects, resources and operations, it can be considered secure.

The enterprise security policy is characterized by confidentiality, integrity, and availability. Possible forms of threat to information security are: unauthorized access, theft of documents; interception of information in communication channels, operational errors; destruction of information (accidental or deliberate);

Destruction of information by “viruses” (as noted above); errors in information processing programs; power outage; falsification of messages; unauthorized modification of information. Various forms of information security threats are countered by a wide range of protection measures that must be strictly implemented.

INTERNAL INFORMATION – financial and management reporting of the enterprise.

VERBAL INFORMATION. Naturally, management also relies on various sources of written and oral information to assist in forecasting and developing goals. Methods of collecting verbal, oral information, in fact, are most often used in the analysis of the external environment. This should include information obtained from radio and television broadcasts, from consumers, suppliers, competitors, sales meetings, professional organizations (such as Rotary or Nodding clubs), lawyers, accountants and financial auditors, and consultants.

WRITTEN INFORMATION. Sources of written information about the external environment include newspapers, trade magazines, newsletters, professional journals and annual reports.

Espionage is nothing new in corporate life. It has sometimes proven to be a successful way of collecting data about the actions of competitors, which data is then used to reformulate the organization's goals.

12. The role of organizational factors in improving the quality of management decisions.

There are many factors that influence the level of quality of management decisions. The main ones are:
degree of awareness of the decision maker (DM). The presence of insufficient information and its unreliability can lead to a real disaster. The volume of information and the degree of its reliability depend on the level of information support of local governments. In addition, the awareness of employees depends on the level of their qualifications, since only a competent employee knows what information is needed in principle. Information support is the basis on which all management activities are built, and the determining factor in the validity of the decision made and the effectiveness of the management system as a whole. The main condition for making quality decisions is comprehensive awareness

competence and experience of the decision maker. Develop scientifically

level of collegiality in the process of developing a solution The hierarchical management structure allows the administration to carry out its functions and carry out the necessary control, as well as respond to all kinds of changes in the environment (situation), analyzing information received through feedback channels.

the nature and degree of responsibility of the decision maker for the results of the decision. Activities in
within the framework of existing legal and social norms, national legislation is a necessary condition for the work of any organization.

13 The influence of situational factors on the quality of management decisions.

It is not difficult to agree that there can be many factors influencing the quality level of management decisions. Conventionally, they can be divided into two groups:
a) situational in nature, associated with awareness of the problem, alternatives for its solution and their consequences. This group includes the study of the situation, analysis and forecasts, methods used, organization of management at the enterprise, etc.;
b) behavioral nature in the process of developing solutions: motives, value orientations, level of requirements, willingness to take risks of those developing and making decisions.

Factors of the first group act at the stage preceding decision-making and contribute to the formulation of the problem. Factors of the second group are manifested in the behavior of the manager and his employees during the development of management decisions.

14 The role of psychological factors in improving the quality of management decisions.
Decisions are justified not only by organizational, technical, legal, but also by psychological criteria. In particular, experienced managers create a favorable psychological environment before announcing a decision to create a positive impression among subordinates. It is not recommended to “instill fear”, as it creates opposition to the leader.
The validity of the decision should not raise doubts among the executors. Along with the answer to main question: "What should be done?" other things must be clear to the performers: - why it is necessary to do it this way and not otherwise; - the better than before new order of things; - to what extent this corresponds not only to the interests of the enterprise, but also to each employee.
Timely decision is the second condition for effectiveness. A belated decision does not improve the situation.
The content of decisions (what needs to be done) may not fully meet the expectations of subordinates. In this case, three psychological solutions are distinguished: - prohibiting; - allowing; - constructive.
The most difficult psychological situation is created with prohibitive decisions. (The manager refuses to support the proposal, cancels the measures planned by his subordinates, prohibits individual actions.) If this is systematically repeated, the manager risks losing the support of the team.
When making permitting decisions, you should first ask subordinates to comprehensively justify the proposal, identify difficulties and ways to overcome them. This is important in order to avoid the subordinate’s mistake and prevent his initiative from being held back in the future. The manager should delve deeper into the essence of the matter, correlate proposals with long-term plans and better assess the thinking of the subordinate.
Constructive solutions developed by the managers themselves, on the advice of a psychologist, are better declared as prompted from below (as a rule, examples of this are found). The leader's ambition may be somewhat compromised, but the efficiency of the decision wins. The correspondence of the decision to the forces and means of its implementation is also of no small importance. It is known that under the same objective conditions, managers set themselves and their subordinates tasks of varying difficulty, which is explained by the individual’s self-esteem. In this regard, leaders are distinguished: 1) with inflated inadequate self-esteem (overestimation of strengths and means); 2) low and inadequate self-esteem (underestimation, excessive modesty); 3) adequately high (knowledge of one’s great capabilities); 4) adequately low self-esteem (awareness
In general, a significant, but feasible load for the team is preferable, since it is more profitable economically (with objective remuneration), and psychologically - it develops the team by overcoming increasing difficulties.
The rigidity of regulation of the activities of subordinates is one of the conditions for the effectiveness of decisions. There are three levels of rigidity: *contour decisions - roughly outline the scheme of actions of subordinates and give them freedom in choosing methods to achieve the goal; *structured decisions - in which the main parameters are strictly fixed, but initiative is allowed on secondary issues; *algorithmic solutions practically exclude the initiative of subordinates, strictly regulating their activities.

15. Criteria for the effectiveness of management decisions.

Management decisions are understood as the internal mental activity of the subject of management (manager, collegial or collective body) to resolve a problem situation. Managerial actions are externally observable processes of activity of management workers to ensure the implementation of management decisions. Decision making can be characterized as an intermediate phase between decision and action, largely communication, including the impact on the social environment - the developers and executors of the decision.

“Effectiveness of decisions” can be considered as the effectiveness of developing a solution and the effectiveness of implementing management decisions, which corresponds to two stages (stages) of the process of making management decisions. Each of them can use its own assessment approaches and performance indicators.

Under efficiency in general view refers to the effectiveness of something (production, management, labor). Evaluating the effectiveness of decisions is approached from the position of practice - the criterion of truth. It is difficult to disagree with this, although, on the other hand, scientifically based draft decisions may be ignored in practice for various reasons. Qualitative indicators of the effectiveness of developing management decisions may include:

Timely submission of the draft decision,

The degree of scientific validity of decisions (use of scientific development methods, modern approaches),

Multivariate calculations,

The use of technical means,

Focus on studying and using progressive domestic and foreign experience,

Costs associated with the development of draft solutions,

Number of people involved in developing solutions (specialists, external employees of the enterprise),

Cost and timing of the project,

Number of co-executors at the solution development stage,

Use of external consultants during the development of solution options,

The degree of risk in the implementation of decisions, etc. The above applies primarily to management decisions of a promising nature associated with fundamental changes in the enterprise.

16. Methodology of the process of developing management decisions.

A successful solution to a problem largely depends on the organization of its search, adherence to a number of fundamental principles: solutions to problems should be focused on positive end results, both in the interests of the company and consumers;

Developing a solution should not be limited to one option;

Development technology should include the use of both quantitative and qualitative methods for preparing solutions;

Taking into account the probabilistic nature of the occurrence of socio-economic events and eliminating risk;

Usage comprehensive assessment the effectiveness of each solution option;

Use of modern computer technology;

A rational combination of the work of the decision maker (DM), systems specialists (system analysts) and other workers;

The formulation of problems, development and selection of solutions should be concentrated at the level of the hierarchy where the necessary information is available;

Using targeted, integrated and systematic approaches to develop economically sound solutions;

When developing solutions that are complex in content and long-term in preparation, it is advisable to use the planning principle;

Flexible use of the most rational organizational forms of solution development: individual, group, collective, collegial, targeted cross-functional groups, matrix structures, etc.

In management practice, a logical scheme of actions of a manager has developed when organizing the development of management decisions.

Activities in developing solutions include:

determination of one or more goals of the company (system);

establishing alternative actions to achieve goals (development of options);

calculation of resource costs for each option;

construction of a logical or mathematical model expressing a system of connections between goals, by alternative means their achievements environment, resource needs, existing limitations;

determining the criterion for assessing the effectiveness of each option.

Features in the organization of solution development appear depending on a number of factors: the hierarchical level in the enterprise management system (section, team, workshop, enterprise, association, ministry); type of tasks to be solved (innovative, routine, operational, promising, definite, risky, etc.); applied methods for developing a solution; the degree of use of technical means, mathematical apparatus and others.

Decision making theory focuses on the development and search for optimal results on fairly complex problems, with a significant number of connections and dependencies, restrictions and solution options. The methodological basis for resolving such problems is a systematic approach, which presupposes a certain logic of action. Essentially, it represents the basis for studying and organizing the problem under consideration for subsequent solution, both using economic and mathematical methods and computer technology, and in manual mode.

Science and practice offer a wide range of methods for developing management decisions, including methods of inversion, analogy, fantasy, brainstorming, morphological analysis* and others.

The inversion method involves abandoning the traditional view of the problem by overcoming the existing stereotype.

The analogy method is characterized by the use of existing experience in solving similar situations at a given enterprise or related ones.

The fantasy method is based on the hope of accidentally finding a solution to a problem while trying to find the most incredible ways to solve it. This method is based on a broad exchange of information, ideas, and knowledge between employees of the management apparatus.

The brainstorming method is used to find solutions to new, global problems. (Its features are discussed in more detail in paragraph 5.4.)

The method of morphological analysis consists in dividing the task into components, within which the search for the most rational ideas and methods for their implementation is carried out. Next, a multidimensional table is created that allows one to evaluate the feasibility of possible combinations of solving the problem.

The domestic literature provides a number of classifications of methods used in developing solutions. In accordance with one of them, the entire set of methods is divided into three groups:

2) Methods based on “common sense”, that is, on logical judgments, consistent evidence, based on practical experience.

3) Methods based on a scientific and practical approach, involving the selection of optimal solutions from a number of options calculated through the use of significant information arrays. This is inevitably associated with the use of modern electronic computing tools.

17. Organizational principles for the development of management decisions.
The following principles for organizing the development of solutions are widespread:

The principle of hierarchy, which pursues the goal of coordinating activities and strengthening centralization while maintaining subordination in the development of decisions on executors;

The use of targeted cross-functional groups that are created on a temporary basis consisting of representatives of various departments and levels of management. The goal is to use the specialized knowledge and experience of workers to solve specific and often complex problems. Group members are in dual subordination: the main leader and the leader of the cross-functional group, who can change during the work;

The use of formal rules and procedures, which involves the creation of special instructions(standards) for implementation certain actions. In some cases, excessive rigidity slows down innovation processes and the manifestation of flexibility when the situation changes;

The use of direct horizontal connections when developing solutions without the involvement of top management, which reduces development time and increases the responsibility and motivation of performers. Often, on this basis, bilateral decisions are made by managers at the same level within existing rules and plans;

The development of plans contributes to better coordination of work. They reflect the timing of the work stages and the necessary resources;

Creation of matrix structures - in contrast to task groups and direct bilateral interaction, it is assumed that a unit will be created, headed by a person vested with the rights of the head of a functional unit. Such formations are created to develop complex problems. The functions performed by the solution development manager are as follows:

Management of the decision making process;

Definition of the problem, participation in its specification and selection of criteria for assessing the effectiveness of the solution;

The final choice from the available solution options and responsibility for it;

Organization of implementation of the developed solution by performers.

The development of complex solutions that require the use of modern scientific methods, for example, system analysis, is carried out by specialists - systems analysts (systems engineers). It is very important, however, that the leader also participates in this work. Surveys show that such participation is an important factor for success both during the development and implementation of solutions. This doubles the implementation of solution results. To effectively participate in the process of developing solutions, a manager needs to know the logic of the systems approach and have a general understanding of the methods and means used.

18. Target orientation of management decisions
Choosing the target orientation of an enterprise is a very urgent task, especially in modern economic life, which is characterized by high dynamism.

Constant changes in the market make it necessary to set new goals and, consequently, to implement them, which affects the nature of the management process. In this regard, various types of management process are distinguished, although their strict observance in practice may not be.

Let us note some features of target orientation when developing management decisions. Determining the goals of solving a problem poses a difficulty due to the fact that only simple solutions, as a rule, have one goal. In most decisions there are several of them, and contradictions between them are possible. Along with new ones, there are goals that should be preserved. For example, when solving the problem of increasing production volumes or reducing costs, you should remember to ensure product quality. In this case, the goal that needs to be preserved acts as a constraint. The choice of path to achieve it often depends on how accurately the goal is formulated. This circumstance also has a psychological aspect: the more correctly the goal is set, the more confident the performers act in its implementation.

It is advisable to reduce the number of goals by simplifying and aggregating them. This can be achieved as follows:

First, identify the presence of subgoals to achieve the main one and exclude them from the list of goals. For example, when establishing the main goal - making a profit, reducing the cost of production is a subgoal, a means of achieving it;

Secondly, determine the reality of achieving your goals; exclude targets that do not meet this condition;

Thirdly, it is desirable to combine goals that coincide in content.

If several goals are identified, then the main one is identified, in relation to which the search for an optimal solution is carried out. At the same time, restrictions are set for achieving existing goals. For example, when determining the main goal - improving the quality of products - restrictions must be set on other goals: increasing the cost (since its unlimited growth is impossible) or the labor intensity of manufactured products.

Depending on the specific situations, the magnitude of the restrictions varies. She can

a) reach a certain limit (maximum or minimum),

b) be equal to this limit (value) or be greater than it,

c) be equal to or less than this value,

d) lie in a certain interval.

When setting goals, it is necessary to proceed from the general interests of the system, taking into account the possible conflicting interests of individual subsystems of the enterprise, expressed for private purposes. If there are conflicting goals of this kind, they should be brought to the same measurement scale and based on the priority of more general goals. This removes inconsistency between individual goals and allows for a better assessment of alternative courses of action.

19. Initiative-target technology for the development and implementation of management decisions.

20 Program-targeted technology for the development and implementation of management decisions

Target control technologies (TCTs) define a set of processor control technologies (TCTs). Thus, the manager must first decide on the choice of a specific target management technology, and then use the corresponding set of processor technologies as tools. TCU are technologies based on the priority of goals over situations. TCU focuses management activities on achieving the goal: the decision should be aimed at changing the situation, and not at eliminating disturbing influences. A goal can be subdivided into smaller subgoals (hierarchy of goals), each goal must form at least 2 tasks. The TCU includes: initiative-targeted, program-targeted and regulatory technologies.

21 Regulatory technology for the development and implementation of management decisions

Target control technologies (TCTs) define a set of processor control technologies (TCTs). Thus, the manager must first decide on the choice of a specific target management technology, and then use the corresponding set of processor technologies as tools. TCU are technologies based on the priority of goals over situations. TCU focuses management activities on achieving the goal: the decision should be aimed at changing the situation, and not at eliminating disturbing influences. A goal can be subdivided into smaller subgoals (hierarchy of goals), each goal must form at least 2 tasks. The TCU includes: initiative-targeted, program-targeted and regulatory technologies

22 Modeling in management decision making.
As Shannon defines it: “A MODEL is a representation of an object, system, or idea in some form other than the whole itself.”

There are a number of reasons for using a model rather than attempting to directly interact with the real world. These include the natural complexity of many organizational situations, the impossibility of conducting experiments in real life, even when they are necessary, and management's orientation towards the future.

Model building, like management, is a process. The main stages of the process are problem statement, construction, validation, application and updating of the model.

Like all tools and methods, management science models can lead to errors. The effectiveness of the model can be reduced by a number of potential errors. The most common ones are unreliable initial assumptions, limited opportunities obtaining the necessary information, user fears, poor use in practice, excessively high cost.

Review of Management Science Models

Game theory is a method used to evaluate the impact of an action on competitors. Queuing theory models can be used in accordance with the demand for them. Inventory management models help the manager synchronize the placement of orders for resources and optimize their volumes, as well as determine the optimal quantity of finished products for the warehouse. Linear programming models allow us to establish the optimal way to distribute scarce resources among competing demands for them. Simulation is the use of a device that simulates the real world. IN economic analysis a number of methods are used to determine economic situation the organization or feasibility of an action from an economic point of view.

23 Game theory as a method of making management decisions.
GAME THEORY. One of the most important variables on which the success of an organization depends is competitiveness. Obviously, the ability to predict the actions of competitors means an advantage for any organization. GAME THEORY is a method for modeling the assessment of the impact of a decision on competitors.

Game theory was originally developed by the military so that strategy could take into account possible actions enemy. In business, game models are used to predict how competitors will react to price changes, new sales promotions, additional service offerings, modifications, and new product introductions. If, for example, management uses game theory to determine that competitors will not do the same if they raise prices, it may have to forgo this step to avoid being put at a competitive disadvantage.

Game theory is not used as often as the other models described here. Unfortunately, real-world situations are often very complex and change so quickly that it is impossible to accurately predict how competitors will react to a firm's changing tactics. However, game theory is useful when it comes to identifying the most important factors to consider in a competitive decision-making situation. This information is important because it allows management to consider additional variables or factors that may affect the situation, thereby increasing the effectiveness of the decision.

24. Decision tree as a model for making management decisions.
Decision tree. This is a diagrammatic representation of a decision making problem. The decision tree gives the manager the opportunity to take into account various directions of action and correlate them with financial results, adjust them according to the probability assigned to them, and then compare the alternatives. The concept of expected value is an integral part of the decision tree method.

A decision tree can be built for complex situations, when the results of one decision affect subsequent decisions, also in uncertain situations, in the presence of uncontrollable factors.

Thus, a decision tree is a useful tool for making sequential decisions.

Many of the assumptions a manager makes relate to future conditions over which the manager has little or no control. However, these types of assumptions are necessary for many planning operations. It is clear that the better a manager can predict external and internal conditions in relation to the future, the higher the chances of drawing up feasible plans.

25. Features of making management decisions using the scenario method.
Scenarios allow, with a certain level of reliability, to identify possible trends in the development of events, relationships between existing factors, and form a picture of the states to which the situation may come under the influence of certain influences. Scenarios for the expected development of the situation make it possible to timely recognize the dangers posed by unsuccessful management influences or unfavorable developments of events.

The prototype of the scenario method can be the decision of M. I. Kutuzov to retreat from Moscow to Patriotic War 1812. Having listened to various options for possible actions that determine various scenarios for the development of the war with the French, assessing their strengths and weak sides, the commander came to an unpopular (as would be assessed now), but only the right decision- leave Moscow. Subsequent developments confirmed that he was right; the war was won.

The use of special computer programs, as well as random number sensors, with the subsequent elimination of impossible situations, expands the horizon of analysis and alternative scenarios. The list of possible options for the development of events allows us to identify critical situations for decision-making, the potential consequences of the proposed alternatives and the choice on this basis of the most effective one.

A statesman holding a responsible position, a businessman making an important decision for the fate of a project, a financier analyzing the stock market, a surgeon on the eve of a complex unconventional operation, a designer laying the foundations of a fundamentally new object when making important decisions, as a rule, try to predict a possible scenario for the development of events. in order to make decisions that ensure success.

The scenario method involves the creation of technologies for developing scenarios that provide a higher probability of developing an effective solution in situations where this is possible, and a higher probability of minimizing expected losses in situations where losses are inevitable.

26. Making management decisions using the bounded rationality model.
The model of bounded rationality in decision making assumes that the manager, in his desire to be rational, depends on cognitive limitations, habits and biases in perception and, depending on the predominance of the first or second, the model can have two varieties: personally bounded rationality; organizational bounded rationality. In these approaches, the definition of the problem occurs in a simplified manner, and the search for an alternative is carried out, at least at the beginning of the process, in areas known to the manager. Data analysis is also simplified by shifting from long-term to short-term targets. The exchange of information is not very accurate and largely reflects individual biases based on the goals of individual units. Evaluation criteria are reduced to the level of past experience. The first of the alternatives that exceeds this level is used as the basis for belief and as the basis for choice. Therefore, it can be concluded that people pursue satisfaction goals rather than maximization goals. Satisfaction can be interpreted as a course of action that is good enough for the organization as a whole and requires a minimum of effort on the part of the organization's members. For example, very often investments in organizations are directed to where a satisfactory return can be achieved, without trying to find the best option available.
G. Simon's model of bounded rationality

1. When choosing between alternatives, managers strive for satisfaction rather than ideality. Examples of satisfaction criteria: adequate profit, market share, fair price.

2. Managers realize that the world they perceive is a simplified model of the real world, which is largely meaningless.

3. Managers may make choices without first identifying all possible behavioral alternatives because they consider the main goal to be satisfying some criteria rather than obtaining maximum results.

27. Optimization model for making management decisions.
Optimization is choosing the best solution. When optimizing even simple problems, it is necessary to go through many thousands or millions of solution options in an acceptable time. Particularly important in this case is the development of criteria for effectively searching for the optimum, narrowing the search area to a minimum set of solution options that are close to the optimal one.

Optimal does not mean the right solution. There may be several correct solutions for a specific situation, but there may be only one optimal solution. Moreover, it is of a calculated nature and has a quantitative expression. Subjective assessments such as “good plan” or “low costs” are not suitable. To make the optimal decision, it is necessary to select the most important one from a set of indicators characterizing the situation. Then take a decision option in which this indicator receives the best quantitative expression (for example, maximum profit or minimum costs, time - depending on the task). Optimal solutions allow you to achieve goals with minimal expenditure of labor, material and financial resources.

When searching for optimal solutions, it is necessary to determine optimality criteria. They can be: production cost, labor productivity, raw material costs, resource availability, etc.

To solve any control problem in general case two interrelated algorithms are required:

1) an algorithm for receiving and processing information necessary to solve the problem,

2) a decision-making algorithm obtained from the problem model.

However, despite significant theoretical results, their practical use is still extremely limited. According to estimates, optimization problems solved in management at the industry level account for 3-4% of the total number of management problems solved, and in enterprise management systems - 5%. However, the future practice of developing management decisions is connected precisely with them.
28. Features of making management decisions using the method of collective opinion.
Collective decisions are made on the basis of collective wisdom (group members, department employees, etc.), which allows one to avoid gross mistakes in their development. The disadvantage is a significant amount of time spent working on a solution.

It involves not only the calculation of collective expertise, but also the use of special methods of open discussion of alternative solutions, additional exchange of information between persons directly involved in the decision-making process, coordination, and search for a compromise.

Collective examinations occupy an important place in expert technologies.

Features of collective examination are as follows:

1. A more complete understanding of the situation. The experience of conducting examinations shows that individual experts often present in sufficient detail various aspects of the analyzed situation. Combining and comparing expert opinions allows us to obtain a more complete picture of the subject of examination.

2. Identification of obviously uncompetitive options. Comparison of different points of view helps to identify alternative options, the use of which is inappropriate.

3. Identification of correct “heretical” judgments. The right solutions can sometimes be offered by highly qualified specialists who have a deep understanding of a narrow professional field. The opinion of such experts may differ significantly from the majority opinion, but it may turn out to be correct.

4. Obtaining objective assessments. The opinions of individual experts contain a tinge of subjectivity. Therefore, discussion of expert opinions (provided for by a number of expert procedures) increases their objectivity. This is also facilitated by the procedures for developing collective expert judgments and assessments based on individual judgments and assessments.

5. Obtaining estimates of increased reliability. Expert opinions obtained as a result of collective examinations, in many cases, turn out to be more balanced and stable upon receipt additional information, reasonable and reliable.

29. Criteria for making management decisions.
When a manager diagnoses a problem in order to make a decision, he must be aware of what exactly can be done about it. Many possible solutions to an organization's problems will not be realistic because either the manager or the organization does not have enough resources to implement the decisions made. In addition, the problem may be caused by forces outside the organization, such as laws that the manager has no power to change. Limitations on corrective actions limit decision-making options. Before moving on to the next stage of the process, the manager must impartially identify the nature of the limitations and only then identify alternatives. If this is not done, at a minimum, a lot of time will be wasted. It's even worse if an unrealistic course of action is chosen. Naturally, this will aggravate rather than solve the existing problem.

Limits vary and depend on the situation and individual leaders. Some common limitations are inadequacy of funds; insufficient number of employees with the required qualifications and experience; inability to purchase resources at reasonable prices; the need for technology that has not yet been developed or is too expensive; extremely intense competition; laws and ethical considerations. As a rule, a large organization has fewer restrictions than a small or beset by many difficulties.

A significant limiter on all management decisions, although sometimes completely avoidable, is the narrowing of the powers of all members of the organization determined by the top management. In short, a manager can only make or implement a decision if senior management has granted him this authority.

In addition to identifying constraints, the manager needs to determine the standards by which alternative choices will be evaluated. These standards are usually called decision-making criteria. They act as guidelines for evaluating decisions. For example, when deciding to buy a car, you can focus on the criteria of cost - no more than $10,000, economy - at least 25 miles per gallon of gasoline, capacity - five adults at a time, attractiveness and good performance in terms of service.

30. Features of the analysis of alternative management decisions
Ideally, it is desirable to identify all possible actions that could eliminate the causes of the problem and thereby enable the organization to achieve its goals. However, in practice, a manager rarely has sufficient knowledge or time to formulate and evaluate each alternative. Moreover, considering too many alternatives, even if they are all realistic, often leads to confusion. Therefore, the manager typically limits the number of choices for serious consideration to just a few alternatives that seem most desirable.

Instead of searching for the best possible solution, people continue to try alternatives only until one is identified that satisfies a certain acceptable minimum standard. Managers understand that finding the optimal solution is too time-consuming, expensive, or difficult. Instead, they choose a solution that will solve the problem.

However, care must be taken to ensure that a sufficiently wide range of possible solutions is taken into account. In-depth analysis of difficult problems is necessary to develop several truly different alternatives, including the possibility of doing nothing. When management fails to appreciate what will happen if nothing is done, there is a danger of being overwhelmed by the demand for immediate action. Action for its own sake increases the likelihood of responding to an external symptom of a problem rather than the root cause.

31. Methods for comparing alternative management decisions
The most simplified method of analyzing alternatives may include:

Ordering the entire list of alternatives,

A detailed consideration of the two extreme and middle alternatives.

Another approach to analyzing alternatives consists of the following steps:

Identification of many alternatives to solve the problem;

Selecting feasible alternatives that satisfy constraints;

Making judgments about the preferability of alternatives and preliminary selection of the best alternative;

Assessment of alternatives by decision makers;

Experimental testing of two to three most preferred alternatives (often used in scientific and technical activities) in order to obtain additional information about the preference of a particular option;

Selection of a single solution based on information about the results of the experiment, any other additional information, intuition and experience of the manager.

Judgments about the preferability of alternatives are made based on the results of their comparison or evaluation. At the same time, the positive and negative aspects of each of the alternatives are determined and a certain compromise is established, allowing further comparison of the alternative with a previously adopted standard or criterion. For this purpose, methods such as Kepner-Tregoye criterion comparison, payment matrix, goal or decision tree, as well as methods based on the theories of probability, preferences, utility, etc. are used. The most common method for comparing and evaluating decisions is the “decision tree” method, especially in uncertain situations, in the presence of uncontrollable factors.

Selecting an alternative is the culmination of the decision-making process. It is possible to apply past experience, experimentation, operations research methods and systems analysis.

Experimentation as a method for selecting alternatives is compelling but often expensive, making it difficult to use. In addition, experimental conditions may not correspond to real ones. Therefore, the experimental results must be carefully analyzed. It should be noted that some decisions require a certain testing, for example, a probationary period when hiring, testing of technical equipment. Much more often, to compare alternatives and select the best option, so-called “desk” methods are used, based on the analysis of quantitative and qualitative factors, including the use of computer technology.

32. Selection of the optimal management decision and organizational support for its implementation.
The more complex the problem, the more responsible the choice of solution. Therefore, this stage involves a comparison of the expected economic and social effect of the developed alternatives. The influence of the external environment is also taken into account, in particular, the influence of uncontrollable factors on the results of the decision made, and the degree of possible risk is assessed. The effect of the uncertainty factor when making a decision is associated with the level of management and the duration of the period for implementing decisions. The higher the level of management and the longer the time period, the more factors are controllable.

Implementation of the decision may lead to results that do not meet the goal. Therefore, at this stage, alternatives are identified that are directly related to achieving the goal and satisfy certain restrictions. The criterion for evaluating a solution can be efficiency, the time factor; limitation - the degree of risk.

There are other ways to determine the best solution. Dawson recommends, depending on the situation, to be guided by one of five rules of the game:
- do not rush from option to option, but determine the time to think about each one, sequentially consider their positive and negative sides;

Determine the line of behavior, especially on fundamental issues: does the decision being made correspond to your position in life, life values. If there is no unity, then it is possible to adjust your own views;

Deeply analyze the current situation to determine the objectivity of judgments;

If there are a significant number of options (more than two or three), you should be guided by the principle common sense. The choice in this situation is made easier by relying on logical judgments;

In search of solutions to new problems, it is advisable to show creativity and an initiative attitude, which often ends in success.

In the process of preparing and choosing a solution, it is necessary to take into account two sides: formal and behavioral. The first is normative, due to the mathematization of the decision-making process, the second is due to the peculiarities of the behavior of persons making management decisions in a specific situation.

33. Behavioral aspects of the analysis of alternatives and selection of the optimal management decision.