Demographic problem in the world: solutions. Ways to solve demographic problems Demographic problem in the world ways to solve

Bespalchikova Yana

The work is devoted to the study of the demographic situation in the world as a whole, in countries of different development, as well as the main differences in the demographic policies of countries, depending on the degree of their development and demographic situation.

Download:

Preview:

Introduction

Human society on Earth is not something static. It is constantly changing, something new appears, and the old goes away. Previous generations leave something to subsequent generations. All phenomena and events have their causes and their consequences. Such a consequence of the events of the 20th century was the global problems of humanity. Not the least important among them is the demographic problem, which I have chosen as topic of this work.

Object of study is the demographic situation in the world as a whole and in countries of different development, as well as the main differences in the demographic policies of countries, depending on the degree of their development and demographic situation. The demographic situation and demographic policy of China, as a country best known for its demographic problems, was studied not in general, but specifically; India, as the country in which demographic policy began to be carried out first, and Russia, as the country with the most interesting for demographers and the most anomalous demographic situation.

Relevance the problem is quite obvious, since the solution to the demographic problem in our country and in our time is an extremely pressing issue, which is paid attention to by public and political figures, the media, demographers, geographers, social scientists, sociologists, economists and many others . Significance this problem for citizens Russian Federation is very large, since with minus natural population growth observed in Russia for almost 20 years, one can raise the question of whether our country will even exist in a century or two.

Purpose The work was aimed at studying the essence of the problem, the reasons for its occurrence, ways to solve it, the dependence of the demographic situation on the economic development of the country, as well as considering all of the above using the example of three countries: China, India and Russia.

As supplied by me tasks One can call it a desire to point out the existence of such an important problem as the one under consideration, and to focus attention on the demographic situation in Russia, as well as on the inadequacy of measures to overcome depopulation in our country.

I have used enough a large number of literature. The main material was taken from the book by V. P. Maksakovsky “Geographical Picture of the World”.

About degree of knowledgeThis issue can be said to be of great interest these days, and it is actually being studied throughout the world. As a full-fledged science, demography appeared relatively recently (approximately in the middle of the 19th century), but its roots go far, and the origins of demographic knowledge can be found in the works of many great philosophers of antiquity, for example, Confucius and Aristotle. During this time, the essence of demographic processes and phenomena was comprehended, causes and consequences were understood. However, research into ways to manage these processes and population planning are in the initial stages. They will still develop.

More than 6 million years ago, the first creatures with human characteristics appeared on Earth. Over the course of hundreds of thousands of years, these creatures evolved, and the result of this evolution was Homo sapiens - “reasonable man”, in the biological sense modern man. This happened about 150 thousand years ago in eastern Africa. Approximately 5 thousand years ago in Asia, between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and in North Africa in the lower reaches of the Nile River, the first civilizations, the first societies arose, which we can judge from written sources (Aksenova M. (editor-in-chief of “Countries. Peoples. Civilizations” Encyclopedia for Children, Moscow-“Avanta+”, 2006, 704 p.).

Modern human society is the result of a long historical process. The historical process is the life of mankind in its development and results, its path described in history from ancient times to the present day; this is a consistent sequence of successive events in which the activities of many generations of people are manifested (Dvigaleva A.A. “Exam for five. Social Science" 2nd edition, corrected and expanded, St. Petersburg - "Victory", 2008, 624 p. "Society. Historical process and its meaning"). Over the millennia of its existence, humanity has settled throughout the Earth, created many states, each of which is part of a huge world system, economic, political, cultural and social. It is precisely the fact that almost all states of the modern world constitute a single system that makes it possible to talk about globalization (from the English global - world, worldwide) of all processes characteristic of human society.

At the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, the concept of globalization became truly key and iconic. The study of its phenomenon attracts scientists, public and political figures, and representatives of the business world. Despite such interest in globalization, the essence of this concept is often interpreted differently and gives rise to discussions among specialists - sociologists, political scientists, geographers, and economists. It remains indisputable that in its most general form, the essence of globalization lies in the sharp expansion and complication of interrelations and interdependencies between states, organizations, groups and individuals. From the point of view of geography, this means a certain change in the role of state borders, the barrier function of which is decreasing, from the point of view of social science - the transformation of humanity into something unified, the beginning of the disappearance of disputes on religious, national and other topics.

Globalization is a historical process, the origins and beginning of which are also controversial. Some scientists note that the idea of ​​globalization is ancient, and its beginnings can be traced back to ancient philosophy. Others consider the era of great geographical discoveries and the emergence of the world market, as a consequence of this era, to be the impetus for its emergence. Still others, in relation to globalization, especially emphasize the life-affirming view of world development in the works of French enlighteners of the 18th century. From the point of view of the fourth, the beginning of this process was laid in the first half of the 20th century, marked by two destructive world wars and the Great Depression, and the motive for globalization was not the idea of ​​world progress, but the idea of ​​a world crisis (Maksakovsky V.P. “Geographical picture of the world” book I “General characteristics of the world” 4th edition, revised Moscow-“Drofa”, 2008, 495 pp., chapter “Globalization: a contradictory process”).

Now with regard to globalization, it is clear that its comprehensive nature means the onset of a fundamentally new stage both in the development of this process and in the development of world human society.

However, in addition to the rapprochement and unification of the Earth's population, globalization has also given rise to a number of serious problems that are of a planetary nature and are therefore called global problems of humanity. In the course of the development of civilization, humanity has repeatedly faced complex, serious problems, sometimes affecting more than just one country or continent. But still, this was only a kind of prehistory of modern global problems, which fully manifested themselves in the second half, and especially in the last quarter of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st. They were brought to life by a complex of reasons that clearly manifested themselves during this period. The quantitative increase in the planet's population by 2.5 times within the lifetime of one generation, the opening of the road to space, the entry of a number of countries into the post-industrial stage of development, a sharp increase in the amount of waste emitted into the environment, the formation of a unified world information system, the globalization of economics and politics, an increase in the rate of migration , large-scale mixing of peoples - humanity has never seen all this. And finally, never before has it been so close to the point of self-destruction as during the Cold War.

Starting from the 60s and 70s of the 20th century, close attention was drawn to global problems, and a concept about them was formed. It became clear that they

1. firstly, they concern all of humanity, affecting, without exception, the interests and destinies of all countries, peoples and social strata;
2. secondly, they lead to significant economic and social losses and, if worsened, can threaten the existence of human civilization and even life on Earth;
3. thirdly, they can be resolved only in conditions of planetary cooperation, providing for joint actions of all countries and peoples.

In 1980, the science of global studies emerged, which deals with the study of global problems, and their classification was developed (problems of society, problems of “man - society”, problems of “man - nature”).

The main, priority global problems are especially highlighted:

1. environmental
2. demographic
3. energy
4. raw materials
5. food
6. the problem of peace and disarmament, prevention of the third world war
7. problem of using the oceans
8. problem of peaceful space exploration
9. the problem of overcoming the backwardness of developing countries
10. the problem of health protection, preventing the spread of drug addiction, AIDS
11. crisis of human spirituality
12. political crises

(Dvigaleva A.A. “Exam for five. Social Science" 2nd edition, corrected and expanded, St. Petersburg - "Victory", 2008, 624 p. "Society. Global problems of humanity. Origin and essence of global problems")

According to some estimates, the annual costs of humanity to solve global problems should be at least 1 - 2 trillion dollars. The entire gross world product (GWP) in 2006 was estimated at 66 trillion dollars and has not changed much in recent years. Consequently, it is unlikely that the world community as a whole does not have the means to solve global problems.

Some authors call the No. 1 problem the demographic problem. Even without insisting on its primacy, it should be said that it undoubtedly occupies a very important place and is one of the highest priorities. In this work we will focus on it.

Demographic problem

The current population of the Earth is 6,515 million people. This is the population of about 250 countries around the world(see Appendix 1 table 1). There are several options for classifying these countries. In the 90s of the 20th century, a typology was developed with the division of countries into economically highly developed, developing and countries with economies in transition. The last type of countries includes states that, from the late 80s to early 90s of the 20th century, made a transition from the previous administrative command (socialist) economy to a market economy, therefore they are also called post-socialist. Consequently, we are talking about 15 countries of Central-Eastern Europe and 12 CIS countries, as well as Mongolia. Some sources, including statistical ones, also include China and Vietnam in this type of country, although both of these states have not officially abandoned their previous, socialist, path of development, so this thesis seems quite controversial. In any case, official UN statistics classify them as developing countries. Also now, a two-part typology of countries is still widespread, dividing them into economically developed and developing. The classification of countries is based mainly on their GDP (gross domestic product)(see Appendix 1 table 2), in accordance with it, there is a more detailed division of developed and developing countries into groups (Altynov P.I., Balzhi A.B. and G.A., Gorbanev V.A. and etc. " Quick reference schoolchild" 6th edition, stereotypical, Moscow-"Drofa", 2009, 811 p."Economic and social geography of the world").

During the 19th century, the world population increased by 1.7 times, and during the 20th century by 3.7 times. The dynamics of changes in the world population show its steady increase, but over the last century the pace of this increase has become alarming. According to UN forecasts, the world's population will be 7.8 billion in 2025, 9.1 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100.

However, the fact that the world population is increasing does not mean that the population of every country is increasing. The population is actively growing in developing countries of the world, but in developed countries the picture is different(see Appendix 2 table 3). There is the so-called simple reproduction of the population, that is, the numerical replacement of one generation by another (an average of 2 children per family), as well as depopulation (mortality higher than birth rate).

Speaking about the demographic situation in the world and demographic policy, it is worth mentioning such concepts of demography as population reproduction and the theory of demographic transition. These concepts contain the essence of the demographic problem.

As human civilization developed, the nature of population reproduction changed. Since human society, over the millennia of the existence of “homo sapiens” (Homo sapiens), has gone through three main stages of development - the stage of the appropriating economy, the stage of the agricultural economy and the stage of the industrial economy - in demography it is customary to distinguish three historical types corresponding to thempopulation reproduction: archetype, traditional type and modern type.

The archetype of population reproduction covered several tens of thousands of years of the initial history of the human race, when the appropriating economy still dominated everywhere(gathering, hunting, fishing), and in conditions of extremely strong human dependence on nature. The Earth's population during this period was characterized by a very small number and extremely low growth rates, a very high birth rate, but also high mortality, including female and child mortality. Population reproduction took place at the tribal level, with almost no concept of family.

Then there was a gradual transition from an appropriating to a producing economy(agriculture, cattle breeding), called the Neolithic revolution. He brought to life a new historical type of population reproduction, called traditional. Along with the Neolithic revolution, a clear concept of family came into the world and took hold.

The traditional type of population reproduction existed on Earth for several millennia and corresponded to the period of virtually undivided dominance of the agricultural economy. The main distinguishing features of this type were very high birth rates, approaching the physiological maximum (40–50%), and very high mortality rates, which “extinguished” the high birth rate, ultimately leading to low natural population growth. Demographers believe that with the traditional type of reproduction, its main regulator was mortality, which, so to speak, stimulated high birth rates. After all, if parents wanted to have, say, three or four children, then at least two or three times more of them should have been born into the family. With this course of demographic processes, the world population continued to grow very slowly.

The next radical change in the development of the productive forces of society, marking the transition from an agricultural to an industrial economy, began in Europe during the era of industrial revolutions of the 18th–19th centuries, and in the 20th century it covered almost the entire world. It was during this period of time that the traditional type of population reproduction began to be replaced by a modern one.

The modern type of population reproduction means focusing on a completely different demographic situation and using different demographic mechanisms. Reducing human dependence on nature, advances in medicine and healthcare, and a general increase in living standards have led to a noticeable decrease in mortality rates and an increase average duration life, which entailed (while maintaining a high birth rate) an avalanche-like increase in natural growth. Important distinguishing features of the modern type of population reproduction should also be considered the much greater activity and flexibility of demographic relations, which ensure freedom of family choice. At the same time, the controllability and efficiency of the reproduction process sharply increases. It is no coincidence that this type is also called the rational type.reproduction.

All these complex and multifaceted demographic processes required deep scientific research and interpretation, study and interpretation. This is how the concept of a demographic revolution emergedand demographic transition, which began to be used to indicate fundamental changes in population reproduction. The first of them was introduced into scientific circulation in 1934 by the French demographer Adolphe Landry, the second - in 1950 by the American demographer Frank Notestein. In the works of Russian demographers A. Ya. Boyarsky, B. Ts. Urlanis, D. I. Valentey, E. A. Arab-ogly, A. Ya. Kvasha, A. G. Vishnevsky, both of these concepts are either considered equivalent, or The demographic revolution is interpreted as the culmination of the demographic transition. In this case, we talk about threedemographic revolutionsin human history: Neolithic, Revolution XVIII– XIX centuries and revolutions of the second half of the XX century. Each of them determined the transition to a new historical type of population reproduction (Maksakovsky V.P. “Geographical picture of the world” book I “General characteristics of the world” 4th edition, revised Moscow-“Drofa”, 2008, 495 pp., chapter “Historical types of population reproduction and the theory of demographic transition”).

Scientific understanding of such a change in the types of population reproduction led to the emergence of the theory of demographic transition, the main task of which is to explain the sequence and nature of changes in the processes of fertility, mortality and natural population growth and determine their long-term trends. Developed by many scientists general scheme such a demographic transition records its four successive phases, stages, or stages(see Appendix 2 table 4).

The first phase still refers to the final stage of the traditional type of population reproduction. It is characterized by high birth rates, high deaths and low natural growth. At the beginning of the demographic transition, most of the world's population went through this stage. But now it is found almost nowhere, with the exception of the most backward tribes living in tropical forests Africa, the Amazon jungle and the semi-deserts of Australia.

The second phase is characterized by the greatest demographic dynamism. It is expressed, first of all, in a sharp reduction in mortality rates. But the birth rate, the decrease of which is usually delayed by one or two generations, still remains traditionally high, and if it decreases, it is not so significant. As a result, the “fork” between the fertility and mortality rates, which actually determines the natural growth of the population, increases sharply, which becomes the reason for the rapid growth of its population. It is at this stage of the demographic transition that the so-called demographic explosion occurs, which Europe experienced back in the 19th century and which for most countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America began in the middle of the 20th century. This demographic explosion in countries - former colonies - caused a sharp jump in the growth of the Earth's population and led to the emergence of a demographic problem and the threat of overpopulation.

The third phase is characterized by a further decrease in mortality, which gradually stabilizes at a relatively low level. At the same time, the birth rate also decreases, so that the “fork” between them begins to gradually narrow. As a result, in the third phase, weakly expanded population reproduction, which is now characteristic of many economically developed countries, becomes predominant.

The fourth phase occurs when the fertility and mortality rates are leveled out in such a way that it is no longer expanded, but simple reproduction of the population that begins to predominate, leading to stabilization of its population. It is characteristic that until relatively recently this phase was considered exclusively as a forecast phase, expected in a not too close time. But at the end of the 20th century, some developed countries had already actually joined it. Moreover, in some of them, narrowed population reproduction and depopulation began to prevail.

The current transition from the industrial to the post-industrial stagedevelopment of society cannot but mean the formation of a somewhat qualitatively different type of population reproduction. However, even in theoretical terms, this issue is still poorly developed. This is regrettable, because it is difficult to disagree with the statement of S.P. Kapitsa, a famous physicist who also deals with the problems of demography, that “the demographic transition is a fundamental phenomenon in the development of mankind, affecting all aspects of our existence” (Kapitsa S. P. “General Theory of Human Growth”).

Now in developing countries there is a population explosion that threatens the Earth with overpopulation, and in developed countries there is a demographic crisis, depopulation, which means a decrease in the country's population. This difference is due at different stages both demographic transition and historical development. Before the second half of the 20th century and decolonization, today's developing countries were colonies, so by the time they gained independence, they could not stand at the same level of development as their metropolises - the countries that we now call economically developed.

After gaining political independence, the former colonies had the opportunity to more widely use world achievements in medicine, in particular in the prevention of various kinds of diseases, especially epidemic ones. The first successes of young states in the field of economic and cultural development also had a beneficial effect on the reduction in mortality rates. As a result, the mortality rate decreased by approximately half in a very short time. Before this, history had never known such a reduction in mortality in such a short period of time. In contrast to mortality, with regard to fertility, traditional demographic behavior continued for a long time, aimed at maintaining its indicators at a high and even very high level. Today, of the 145 million children born each year, 125 million are born in developing countries. It is this kind of non-synchronizationchanges in the processes of fertility and mortality led to an unprecedented population explosion in most countries of the world(see Appendix 3 table 5).

Based on the nature of population reproduction, economically developed countries can be divided into three groups. The first group includes countries where a fairly favorable demographic situation still exists, characterized by at least average fertility and natural increase rates that ensure expanded population reproduction (for example, Canada). The second group includes countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These are mainly European countries. Some of them still have a minimal excess of birth rates over deaths, while others, of which there are much more, have become countries with “zero” population growth. The third subgroup unites countries with negative natural population growth, that is, in fact, with its natural decline (depopulation)(see Appendix 4 table 6).

Countries of the third and second groups have already entered a period of demographic crisis, which was brought to life by a complex of interrelated reasons. First of all, these include a rapid, sometimes even precipitous, decline in birth rates, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. Demographers sometimes call this phenomenon aging from below.. The increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of increasing levels of material well-being has led to a rapid increase in the proportion of people of older (“non-reproducing”) ages in the population, to aging from above, as demographers call it. However, it is not entirely correct to try to explain the onset of the crisis only by these demographic reasons. Its occurrence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medical-social, moral factors, which caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as a family crisis. The average size families in countries of the second and third groups in Lately decreased to 2.2 - 3 people. The strength of the family has decreased with an increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without formal marriage, and a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.

It would be foolish to deny that the demographic problem in the world is very acute. It requires solutions not only in developing but also in developed countries.

Demographic policy is a purposeful activity government agencies and others social institutions in the sphere of regulation of population reproduction, designed to maintain or change the trends in the dynamics of its population and structure. In other words, this is a policy that affects the processes of fertility, mortality, marriage, divorce, and age structure of the population. In a broad sense, demographic policy is sometimes identified with population policy; in a narrow, more accepted sense, it is considered as one of its components. It is closely related to social and economic policy, but has its own characteristics. The object of such a policy can be countries, their individual regions, as well as individual population groups.

Demographic policy is usually based on a set of various measures: economic, administrative, legal, educational and propaganda. Among the economic measures, aimed primarily at stimulating the birth rate, include paid leave and various benefits for the birth of children, benefits for children depending on their number, age and family composition - on a progressive scale, various loans, credits, tax and housing benefits, and so on. Administrative and legal measuresinclude legislative acts regulating the age of marriage, divorce, attitudes towards abortion and the use of contraceptives, the property status of the mother and children in the event of family breakdown, the labor regime of working women, and more. Educational and propaganda measuresare aimed at forming public opinion, norms and standards of demographic behavior, determining attitudes towards religious and other traditions and customs of population reproduction and family planning policy (intrafamily regulation of childbirth), sex education and youth education, and others.

The history of population policy goes back to the times ancient times. It was reflected in many legal and legislative acts of antiquity, especially in cases of overpopulation of countries or, on the contrary, large human losses. However, religious and ethical doctrines almost always mattered more than such acts. In the Middle Ages, in conditions of increased mortality due to wars and epidemics, some demographic measures, mostly spontaneous, were aimed at maintaining a high birth rate. In modern times, the first country where the demographic policy that stimulated the birth rate received quite clear design was France. Then some other European countries began to pursue such a policy. Subsequently, it was partly replaced by policies aimed at curbing the rate of population growth. The same change of priorities - depending on the phase of the demographic transition - has been characteristic of modern times. However, one cannot but agree with the famous demographer A. Ya. Kvasha, according to whom, in general, the history of demographic policy indicates that it was a rather weak instrument and could not significantly influence the reproduction of the population ().

Demographic policy received its greatest development and distribution in the second half of the 20th century, which is explained by the onset of a demographic explosion in developing countries and a demographic crisis in developed countries. Many political and scientific figures saw in it perhaps the main means of containing population growth in the first case and accelerating it in the second.

The United Nations has paid much attention to demographic policy issues. World population conferences were held under its auspices. However, the resolutions of these conferences were not enough. New means of implementing demographic policy were also needed, which were invented. The first big breakthrough in this area occurred at the turn of the 50-60s of the 20th century, when it was possible to obtain combined contraceptives for internal use - hormonal pills, pills and other means that gradually became more and more improved. All this led to the fact that in the 1960s a real sexual revolution took place in the world. “Birth control is the highest achievement of the human mind, equivalent to the discovery of fire and the invention of printing” ( Upton Sinclair).

Like any other revolution, the sexual revolution gave rise to acute contradictions in views, polemics and a struggle of opinions. First of all, perhaps, they touched upon attitudes towards abortion. In the Christian world, the Catholic Church categorically opposed the artificial termination of pregnancy. Back in 1987, the head of the Catholic Church, the Pope, issued a special “Instruction” on this matter, and at the Cairo Conference in 1994 he again spoke just as sharply. Most Muslim countries are also against abortion and family planning in general. In Protestant and Orthodox countries, the attitude towards them is much more tolerant. In total, approximately 60 million abortions occur annually in the world. The record-breaking countries, where there are more than 50 abortions for every 1,000 women aged 15 to 44, include Vietnam, Romania, Cuba, Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, Estonia, and Bulgaria. At the other extreme (less than 10 abortions) are Zambia, India, South Africa, Bangladesh, Spain, Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, and Switzerland.

Depending on the demographic situation, demographic policy usually pursues one of two main goals.

In developing countries still at the stage of population explosion, the main goal of demographic policy is to reduce fertility rates and natural population growth. The birth rate is decreasing as a result of the popularization and distribution of contraceptives, health education, counseling on family planning, promotion of the advantages of small families, as well as encouraging small families through various economic and administrative measures. Some countries, as one of these measures, not only allow, but also strongly encourage voluntary sterilization of men and women.

The most striking example of the implementation of demographic policy is the developing countries of Asia. There it covers the vast majority of residents. First of all, this applies to countries with the world's largest population - China, India, as well as Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines. Quite active demographic policies are also being pursued in Latin American countries and some North African countries. However, in other parts of the developing world, especially in Muslim countries, where population policies are particularly hampered by religion and tradition, it has not yet gained much traction.

As one of effective measures demographic policy, many developing countries are implementing legislative increases in the age of marriage(see Appendix 4 table 7).For example, in China it was raised to 22 years for men and 20 years for women, in India - to 21 and 18 years, respectively. In reality, there is an even greater “aging” of marriage, which is explained by the fact that a significant part of young people strive to first get an education and then undergo vocational training, often combining it with work activity. As a result, whereas 15 - 20 years ago average age brides in developing countries were 16–18 years old; by the beginning of the 21st century, even in Africa it began to exceed 20 years, and in Asia and especially in Latin America it “aged” even more. At the same time, it must be borne in mind that among the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America there are also dozens of very small inhabitants, and often just dwarf states, in which demographic policy, if it is carried out at all, is not primarily aimed at a decrease, but an increase in natural population growth (Maksakovsky V.P. “Geographical picture of the world” book I “General characteristics of the world” 4th edition, revised Moscow-“Drofa”, 2008, 495 pp., chapter “Demographic explosion in modern world» ).

In most economically developed countries that are in a state of demographic crisis, they are implementing demographic policies aimed at increasing fertility rates and natural increase. This primarily applies to European countries.

Until the end of the 1980s, the socialist countries of Eastern Europe pursued a particularly active demographic policy. In Western European countries, the system of demographic policy measures is generally similar, although, of course, they differ in the amounts of various types of payments and other benefits. Demographers believe that France and Sweden are most actively pursuing policies to encourage fertility and natural increase.

In economically developed countries of the second and third groups, “family aging” is also observed. Currently, the average age of marriage in Europe is 26.4 years for men and 23.4 years for women. In Italy, Switzerland, Sweden for men it exceeds 27, and in Germany even 28 years. For women in the UK, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Spain, it exceeds 27, and in Denmark and Sweden - 29 years (Maksakovsky V.P. “Geographical picture of the world” book I “General characteristics of the world” 4th edition, revised Moscow-“Drofa”, 2008, 495 pp., chapter “Demographic crisis in the modern world”).

The solution to the demographic problem lies not only in the field of demography. It depends on changes in socio-economic conditions, overcoming the backwardness of developing countries and the spiritual crisis of developed countries. An uncontrolled increase in population means an increase in the number of unemployed, hungry, and in financial distress. It will entail increased environmental pollution, unsanitary conditions, mass deaths due to crop failures, epidemics, and so on. A decrease in population in a number of countries may lead to their extinction.

Of all the developing countries, demographic policies are most actively pursued in China and India. Of the developed countries, the most interesting demographic situation has developed in Russia. We will dwell on these countries in more detail.

As already mentioned, there are about 6.515 billion people living in the world. The Chinese population makes up 20% of this number. Moreover, this is a country with an active population growth rate. Population problemsleave their mark on all aspects of life in Chinese society.

It must be borne in mind that China's population would have grown even faster if not for the government's demographic policy,aimed at “suppressing” the high birth rate. In the first years after the founding of the People's Republic of China, such a policy was still absent, since the increase in population was then considered as one of the sources of growth in the country's well-being. However, already in the second half of the 1950s, as a result of a noticeable decrease in the mortality rate while maintaining a high birth rate, increasing difficulties began to arise in providing the rapidly growing population with vital resources, basic types of food and consumer goods. The results of the 1953 census also made a considerable impression on the entire Chinese society. They helped to realize that solving the country's socio-economic problems is impossible without organizing family planning and birth control measures. The idea of ​​birth planning appeared in China during the lifetime of Mao Zedong. However, the Great Helmsman, carried away by the Cultural Revolution, postponed solving the problem of overpopulation until better times. The second generation of Chinese leaders - the generation of reformers who inherited an exhausted and impoverished country - began to pursue an active demographic policy. Already in 1979, all Chinese citizens were officially required to “carry out birth planning” (Article 49 of the Constitution of the People's Republic of China) to "bring population growth into line with economic and social development» (Article 25 of the Constitution of the People's Republic of China).

Demographic policy measures, which were legislated by the 1978 constitution and the 1980 family planning law, initially consisted of mass propaganda, the distribution of birth control devices, the official permission of abortion and sterilization, and others. Then they were supplemented by much more stringent administrative, economic and legal regulations. The age of marriage was raised (for women up to 20 and for men up to 22 years; later even higher - up to 22 years for women and 24 years for men),various kinds of incentive benefits and, conversely, “punishment” measures have been established. Since 1981, the country has had a State Committee for Birth Planning.

The main goal of demographic policy in China is the transition from a large family to a one-child or at least two-child family. Therefore, it is carried out under the mottos: “One child in the family”, “One married couple - one child”, “A people without brothers and sisters” and the like. Sometimes the motto is formulated in a softer form: “Two children are good, three are too many, having four children is a mistake.” Another motto of demographic policy is: “Later, less often, less.” It means encouraging later marriages, intervals between two births of at least three to four years, so that each married couple has no more than two children.

As demographic policy was implemented, a complex system of both incentive and prohibitive measures was developed aimed at reducing birth rates and natural population growth. Those married couples who commit to limit themselves to one child receive a special certificate for members of a one-child family. It gives the right to many benefits - salary bonuses, payment of monthly benefits, free medical care, benefits when enrolling a child in a nursery and kindergarten, when enrolling in a university, and even when working and calculating a pension. A family of two children is not only deprived of all these benefits, but is also required to pay a fairly large fine; In addition, parents may be demoted. For families with a large number of children, a scale of progressively increasing deductions from wages has been established. It is also necessary to keep in mind that in order to get married, you must obtain permission from your place of work, undergo an interview and a medical commission. Permission to give birth to a child is issued by the local family planning committee, and with a specified period. According to the Population Law of the People's Republic of China, in the event of the death of an only child before he reaches 18 years of age, his parents do not have the right to have another child or to adopt without special permission. Rural residents are allowed to have a second child only if the first-born is a girl, and in Beijing, a family receives the right to have a second child if both parents are themselves only children. Representatives of other categories of the population pay a large fine of about 10 annual incomes for the birth of a second child. Members of the Chinese Communist Party who decide to violate state policy regarding the number of children in a family face not only a fine, but also deprivation of their party card (Maksakovsky V.P. “Regional characteristics of the world” book II 3rd edition, revised Moscow-“Drofa”, 2007, 480 pp., chapter “Demographic problems of China”).

It is worth mentioning separately the reluctance of the inhabitants of the Celestial Empire to raise a girl as their only child. A fairly widespread religion in China is Buddhism with its respect for the final resting place of ancestors, whose graves should be looked after by the eldest son, and if not the eldest, then the only one. If the only child in the family is a girl, then the family will not be able to pay tribute to the spirits of their ancestors. International Federation Family Planning reports that 7 million abortions are performed in China every year and 70% of them are sex-selective. That's 4.9 million unborn girls. UN Resident Coordinator Khalid Malik says the imbalance between men and women in China will amount to 60 million in the next two to three years. This means that a huge number of young Chinese will lose the opportunity to get married and start a family. An increase in sexual crimes, increased interest in pornography among young people and illegal forced marriages are also consequences of gender imbalance.

In general, China's demographic policy has proven to be very effective. Suffice it to say that from 1950 to 2005, the birth rate in the country decreased by 2.8 times, and the natural increase rate by 2.7 times. As a result, China, having made a transition in the types of population reproduction, entered the third phase of the demographic transition. As is known, this phase is characterized by relatively low fertility and low mortality, which leads to relatively small population growth. At the beginning of the 21st century in China it dropped to 1% or less. Accordingly, the number of children born to an average woman decreased - from 6.2 children in 1950 to 1.7 children in 2005. The average family size also decreased to 3.5 people. Nowadays, almost 0.9 married women use contraceptives.

Experts believe that if China had not used such harsh (S.N. Rakovsky calls them cruel) demographic policy measures, the country’s population could have exceeded the current level by 200 million people. Naturally, this would also lead to the fact that the five to six billion milestones in the world population would also be reached earlier. One cannot ignore the fact that even with a relative increase of 1%, the annual absolute population growth in China until recently was 13 million Human. This means that he was superior to the entire population of countries such as Belarus, Belgium, Hungary, Greece, Portugal or the Czech Republic. It is not surprising that China's demographic problem inevitably gives rise to complex socio-economic problems.

Firstly, this is the problem of the gender structure of the population. Throughout the history of China, the number of men in this country was much greater than the number of women, which was a consequence of deeply rooted prejudices and the traditional unequal position of women in the family and society compared to men. Although the share of women in the country's population has increased slightly during the years of people's rule, they are still approximately 40 million fewer than men. As a result, there are an average of 105.9 men per 100 women. Even state demographic policy, as if paying tribute to tradition, is much more aimed at the birth of boys than girls. As a result of this violation of the normal proportions between the sexes, the country is experiencing a kind of “bride shortage”, and the number of unmarried men of marriageable age is 18 million (according to forecasts in 2020 there will be 30 million). Thus, the actual social inequality of men and women, despite the proclamation of their legal equality, still persists.

Secondly, this is the problem of the age structure of the population. Previously, China, like other developing countries, was characterized by a large proportion of children of children (34% in 1950) and a small proportion of older people (4%). However, due to a sharp decline in the birth rate with a noticeable increase in average life expectancy, this proportion has undergone great changes. By 2005, the proportion of people of childhood age had decreased to 21%, and those over 60 years of age had increased to 11%, that is, to approximately 145 million people. The aging population complicates the tasks of organizing social security and medical care for pensioners. And it will complicate them even more in the future - after all, according to Chinese forecasts, in 2025 the number of elderly citizens in the country could reach 300 million. This means that in China alone there will be as many of them as in all developed countries of the world. Accordingly, the demographic burden of older people, who in the future will not move into the category of the working population, will increase and reach large proportions.

Thirdly, this is a problem of employment. China has the world's largest labor force. However, it must be borne in mind that this figure applies only to the urban population, while in rural areas the level of unemployment and semi-unemployment is much higher. The share of the employed population in the total number of people over 16 years of age is now 77%. Even with very great successes in the economy, providing work for such a huge number of able-bodied people is very difficult. Therefore, unemployment in recent years, according to official data, has remained at the level of 5–6 million people, but in reality it is much higher.

Fourthly, this is the problem of providing food and durable goods. Per capita consumption indicators remain much lower than in economically developed countries.

Fifthly, this is an education problem.In the 50s - 80s of the 20th century, the proportion of illiterate people in China decreased five times. It was especially possible to increase the level of education among the urban population. As a result, illiterate and semi-literate workers began to be replaced at enterprises by people with an education level of at least the first level of secondary school. Nevertheless, at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, there were more than 200 million illiterates in the country. Among the employed, their share was 11%. As of 2005, the proportion of literate people aged 15 years and older is 91%, including 95% among men and 87% among women; Primary education covers the entire child population of the country. There are now 25% of people with secondary education, and 3.5% with higher education. The ratio of boys to girls in primary and secondary schools has actually become equal. However, the problem of education remains relevant.

Sixthly, this is the problem of increasing the burden on the environment, which primarily refers to non-renewable and partially renewable natural resources. For example, during the years of people's power, the area of ​​arable land in the PRC not only did not increase, but even decreased by 15 million hectares. As a result, the availability of arable land per capita decreased from 0.18 hectares in 1953 to 0.075 hectares in 2000. This is one of the lowest rates in the world.

Of great interest are the forecasts for China's population growth. In 2025, the population will increase to almost 1.5 billion people. According to Chinese estimates, this is approximately the number of inhabitants that the country's natural resources and economic capabilities can support, although there are other judgments about these estimates and capabilities. Projections for 2050 are from 1322 to 1515 million people.

India ranks second in the world in terms of population. It is only surpassed by China, but is projected to take first place by 2050 due to higher population growth rates. However, the high rate of this growth was not always a phenomenon characteristic of India. Moreover, in 1911 - 1921 there was both an absolute and relative decline in population, which was a consequence of the First World War, which affected this country as a colony of Great Britain, as well as epidemics of plague, cholera and smallpox. In the second half of the 20th century. population growth accelerated significantly. India entered the second phase of the demographic transition, marking the beginning of the population explosion.

It can be added that in relation to India, absolute figures are even more impressive than relative ones. Statistics show that in the 1970s -1980s, the annual absolute population growth in the country reached 14 - 16 million people. This means that for every day it increased by 46 - 47 thousand people, and for every hour - by about 1.9 thousand people. In May 2000, a significant event was solemnly celebrated here - the birth of India's billionth citizen; it turned out to be a girl named Asta, which means “faith” in Hindi. Thus, India became the second country in the world, after China, to cross the threshold of 1 billion inhabitants. In this case, it is appropriate to quote the words of the famous Indologist geographer G.V. Sdasyuk that we can talk about the emergence of first a “second” and then a “third” India in the second half of the 20th century.

The demographic explosion has hampered the socio-economic development of the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. But in India its absolute scale is such that such inhibition is especially noticeable. The average population density of the country during the second half of the 20th century increased from 110 to 324 people per 1 km 2 , and this accordingly increased the demographic load on cultivated lands. We must not forget that half of the country’s population are children and youth under 18 years of age, and as they grow up, the state would have to build 10 thousand new houses every week and create 100 thousand jobs, and this is practically impossible. India is also unable to build 130 thousand new schools and train 400 thousand teachers every year. In addition, we should not forget about such a super-problem as providing food for a rapidly growing population.

However, statistics suggest that India has already passed the peak of its population explosion. Although the absolute population growth over the decades from 1981 to 1991 and from 1991 to 2001 remained at the level of 160–180 million people (almost the entire population of Brazil), the average annual growth has already begun to gradually decrease. The same applies to the important fertility rate, which measures the number of children per woman of childbearing age, which was 3.1 in 2000. For comparison, in 1950 it was 6.0. At the beginning of the 21st century, these figures continued to decline. Such changes are explained to a certain extent by the implementation of state demographic policy.

India became the first developing country to implement a national family planning program as an official government policy. This happened in 1951. From the very beginning, the family planning program was by no means limited to limiting the birth rate, but had the main goal of strengthening, through such measures, the well-being of the family as the main unit of society.

Family planning policy in India includes a variety of promotional, medical, administrative, legal and other measures. Thousands of family planning centers have been established throughout the country, dealing primarily with its coordination, administrative and biomedical aspects. They, in particular, take care of the dissemination of new methods of contraception, the use of intrauterine contraceptives, relatively simple sterilization operations and even provide appropriate monetary rewards. This policy did not remain unchanged. It gradually improved and evolved. Many methods have been tried, some of them discarded as ineffective or inappropriate for the situation.

At first, demographic policy set the task of transitioning from a traditionally large family to a family of two or three children. It was carried out under the slogans: “Two or three children are enough!”, “Take time to have a second child, and stop after the third!”, “A small family is a happy family!” At the same time, the means of birth control remained traditional and consisted of sterilization and pregnancy prevention. Sterilization, although not forced, was actively encouraged by the authorities: a man who agreed to it could receive a cash bonus. In April 1976, the country adopted a new, much more stringent family planning program, in which the main role was given to the forced sterilization of men, whose number in India is much greater than the number of women. “Some privileges of the individual can be neglected in the name of the human rights of the nation: the right to life, the right to progress” (Indira Gandhi). Then men who had two or more children were sterilized. In 1978, the government attempted to legally raise the age of marriage. In the 1950s. The average age of marriage for men was 22 years and for women 15 years, but already in the 1960s it was raised to 23 and 17 years respectively, and in 1978 for women - to 18 years.

After the 1981 census showed greater population growth than expected, family planning programs increased in activity. In 1986, the Government of India developed a new program to reduce population growth, which provided for coverage of up to 60% of married couples with various methods of contraception. Based on China's experience, 2 million women's volunteer brigades, each of which was supposed to “take patronage” over 60 married couples. A more stringent standard was established - two children per family. Accordingly, the slogans of demographic propaganda have changed: “Have only two children - the first and the last,” “Two children are enough!”

In the mid-1990s, family planning programs in India underwent further changes. The government decided to abandon national guidelines and tasks in this area, and the results of such programs were no longer published. The emphasis was on improving the health of women in their reproductive years, as well as reducing infant and child mortality. Women were given the right to decide for themselves which method of contraception they chose. At the end of the 1990s, the proportion of women who used contraceptives exceeded 40%.

In 2000, a new National program demographic policy, the main goal of which is to achieve in 10 years a level of fertility corresponding to the simple reproduction of the population, and after 45 - stabilization of its population. The main difference between this program and previous ones is the emphasis on promoting an improved quality of life as a result of reducing family size. The significantly lower success of population policy in India compared to China is primarily explained by socio-economic factors. Firstly, this is the extreme poverty of a significant part of the country's population, where more than a third of all residents live below the poverty line. Secondly, this is the low educational level of the population. Although this level rose from 18% in 1951 to 65% in 2001, the literacy rate for men is still 76%, and for women - 54%; Women account for two-thirds of all illiterates in the country. Kerala, which has the highest male and female literacy rate in the country (91%), also has the lowest population growth rate. In the state of Kerala there are less than two children per woman, while in several other states there are 5. Thirdly, these are some tenets of Hinduism, the associated thousand-year-old tradition of early marriage, as well as various kinds of family rituals (Maksakovsky V.P. “Regional characteristics of the world” book II 3rd edition, revised Moscow-“Drofa”, 2007, 480 pp., chapter “Population Explosion”
and demographic policy in India").

Since ancient times in India, the role of a woman in choosing a life partner in most cases remains limited. Compliance with religious and social norms and traditions makes acquaintance and engagement directly between the bride and groom, as is customary in the West, very difficult and often simply impossible. The vast majority of marriages are still organized by parents, who seek to ensure the inheritance of not only property, but also social status, caste and religious traditions. Usually the young man himself trusts his parents, believing that they will make a wise decision or at least offer him several worthy candidates to choose from. The selection of these candidates is carried out with the help of newspapers, which publish entire pages of marriage advertisements. It can be added that the choice of the groom's parents largely depends on the size of the dowry that can be offered for the bride. Moreover, we should not forget that the wedding ceremony itself is a very expensive event; it usually lasts several days with the participation of numerous relatives and acquaintances.

All this makes it extremely difficult to implement state demographic policy.

The Russian Federation, with a population of about 141.93 million according to 2010 pre-census data, ranks ninth in the world by this indicator. It is inferior to China, India, the USA, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nigeria. When classifying countries, it is classified as an economically developed country of the third group.

The first phase of the demographic transition ended in Russia by the beginning of the twentieth century, but a real demographic explosion never followed. Moreover, over the course of half a century, Russia experienced three demographic crises: during the First World War and the Civil War, during the years of collectivization of the countryside and severe famine, during the Great Patriotic War. Huge physical losses of the population who died in battles and in the rear, died from hunger and during bombing; catastrophic birth rate, very high infant mortality and mortality in general. The country suffered especially large population losses during the Great War. According to various estimates, from 8.7 - 9.3 million people to 11.5 - 12 million people died during this war (Kravchenko A. article “Losses of the USSR and Germany in the Second World War”). The generation that was born at this time was very small, it is often called “Children of War”, and the losses in fertility that this generation produces on average every 20–25 years are called “Echoes of War”. In the 60s - 80s, the demographic situation in the country generally stabilized. However, in the 90s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, a new, and especially severe, demographic crisis broke out.

In the 70s and early 80s, the demographic situation in Russia was relatively favorable. Thus, in 1983, 2.5 million children were born in the RSFSR. Then the beginning of perestroika and the fight against alcohol abuse had a beneficial effect on the birth rate and natural population growth. However, with the onset of the socio-economic crisis of the 90s, the demographic situation worsened sharply. Since 1992, Russia has experienced an absolute population decline and depopulation. If you look at the graphs illustrating the birth rate and mortality rate in Russia, you can see a phenomenon that demographers call the “Russian Cross”(see Appendix 5 table 8). This is an anomaly that could become fatal for the country. It can be added that in the RSFSR in 1988 there were 2 more children per woman, and by the end of the 90s, the fertility of women in the country decreased to 1.24 children, while more than two are needed for sustainable population growth. One of the reasons and one of the consequences of the demographic crisis was the increase in the number of abortions, in terms of the total number of which (3.4 - 4 million per year in the first half of the 1990s; 1.26 million in 2008) Russia ranks undisputedly first in the world. About 70% of pregnancies are terminated. The number of infertile Russian women increases annually by 200 - 250 thousand people (Maksakovsky V.P. “Geographical Picture of the World” Book I “General Characteristics of the World” 4th edition, revised Moscow-“Drofa”, 2008, 495 pp., chapter “Demographic Policy”).

Separately, it should be said about the marriage and divorce rates in Russia. The first is 7‰, the second is 5‰. This suggests that on average there are 7 marriages and 5 divorces per thousand people. Consequently, the probability of maintaining a marriage in such conditions is very, very low (less than 30%). There is also an “aging of the family” - the average age of marriage has increased from 24 years for men and 22 for women (1989) to 26 for men and 24 for women (2009).

The average life expectancy in Russia is 64–65 years, for men – 59 years, for women – 73 years. For comparison, in Japan, as one of the economically developed countries, the average life expectancy is 82 years, for men - 79 years, for women - 84. Over the past 20 years, the number of suicides has sharply increased (in this indicator, Russia ranks one of the first places in the world ). It should be added that in terms of the total number of deaths, the first place in Russia is occupied by deaths from cardiovascular diseases, the second is death from cancer and the third is the so-called 19th class of death, death from exogenous causes: murder, suicide. Immigration from the country of scientists and specialists, highly qualified workers is also high.

In addition, due to unfavorable natural conditions and the underdevelopment of a number of regions, the population of Russia is mainly concentrated in a narrow strip of settlement. Almost the entire European part of the country is inhabited, except for the northernmost regions; in the Asian part, only a narrow strip parallel to the Trans-Siberian Railway, as well as the coastal zone, is populated. Vast areas belonging to the country remain unused and empty, there are not even roads there. This results in a very low average population density. In addition, in Russia there is such a phenomenon as centralization, affecting all spheres of society, and the positive consequences of this phenomenon are a very controversial issue.

In 2010, for the first time since 1992, the population of Russia did not decrease and even increased slightly: from 141.9 million in 2009 to 141.93 in 2010. However, unfortunately, this picture should not be explained by the stabilization of the demographic situation, but by active emigration. In addition, natural population growth is observed in those subjects of the Russian Federation that are national entities with high percentage representatives of the titular nation. These are young peoples who are in the first and second stages of the demographic transition. The leader among these entities is the Chechen Republic. In the same way, natural population growth is observed in regions with a minimal percentage of Russian population. Of the non-national entities, depopulation was not observed in 2009 in the Astrakhan region, which is the region with the lowest percentage of Russian population in the country.

Projections for changes in the population of the Russian Federation are varied. A number of researchers, based on the fact that in recent years the birth rate has increased slightly, and in 2010 the population even increased, suggest that cautious conclusions can be drawn about the “beginning of the end” of depopulation and the way out of the demographic crisis. However, other researchers do not agree with this point of view. It is possible that in the near future the birth rate will actually increase, since relatively large generations will be of childbearing age. However, quite soon the extremely small generation born in the 90s will enter this age. Accordingly, the birth rate will drop sharply, since the number of mothers will be very small, which is perfectly illustrated by such a graph as the age-sex pyramid of the population of the Russian Federation(see Appendix 6 table 9). In order for the natural population growth of the country to increase during these years, it is necessary to increase the fertility of women to 3 children or more. However, it is now difficult to say how realistic this is.

To overcome the demographic crisis, Russia needs stable and intensive population growth; accordingly, its demographic policy is aimed at increasing the birth rate, reducing mortality and encouraging emigration. In terms of stimulating natural growth, it comes down mainly to encouraging large families and implementing a set of measures to provide material and moral stimulation for the family. This is the payment of benefits, a number of benefits for large families, payment of “Maternity capital” for the second child. However, the measures taken so far are not enough. The birth rate, of course, is no longer falling, but it is also not growing as much as it would be necessary to stabilize the demographic situation. In addition, the number of divorces is not decreasing, and the number of abortions, although decreasing, still remains very high. There are still many orphans, which means that their parents do not have the means or opportunity to raise these children. Basically, the measures taken are of a “cosmetic” nature. The benefits provided actually give almost nothing, and the payments turn out to be ridiculous, given the real state of things on the market, growing inflation and the situation on the labor market.

The demographic problem is a problem closely related to various spheres of society. In the conditions of our country, or any other, it cannot be solved separately. A fairly young state, the Russian Federation is currently, unfortunately, a state that is unhealthy in almost all respects.

It requires urgent stabilization of the financing system, since currently huge amounts of money are spent on holidays, on colossal, but from an economic point of view, completely useless structures, while there is no longer enough finance for a number of practically primary needs. In addition, we need to improve the economy, which is currently mainly aimed at producing resources and selling them abroad. Russia is a huge country with enormous resource potential. With a developed industry, it could depend very little on the state of the world market and provide for itself, as shown by the period of the past state, when the RSFSR was part of the Soviet Union, a state that for a long time was not recognized by other states as sovereign. The education and medical systems also need to be improved. The housing and labor issues need to be resolved.

All of the above directly affects the demographic situation in the country. After all, giving birth and feeding a child is less difficult than raising him. You need to know that in almost any case the child born will be able to receive an education, and that if necessary, you can easily apply for medical care for this child, that the birth of a new person will not entail the loss of work and housing. The huge number of abortions suggests that many children, in the living conditions of their parents, would have been better off not being born. Unfortunately, one gets the impression that not only these unborn children, but also any children at all, are not needed by either the state or society.

The state’s demographic policy should not be of the nature of “cosmetic” measures, a large number of phrases that do not mean anything, and hidden propaganda if the state really wants to correct its internal demographic situation.

Conclusion

In conclusion, we can say that, from my point of view, the assigned tasks can be considered completed. I was able to highlight the essence of the demographic problem and consider the reasons for its occurrence, pointing out that the difference in the demographic situation in developed and developing countries mainly lies in the fact that in the former there is a decrease in population growth rates, and in the latter, vice versa.

From the analysis of the demographic state of China, India and Russia, several conclusions can be drawn that I would like to make separately.

Firstly, in less than half a century, changes will occur in the top three countries in terms of population: China will move to second position, giving its place to India.

Second, India will continue to become increasingly impoverished and the gap between the financial situation of its poorest citizens and the elite will widen even further.

Thirdly, Russia should begin a global restructuring of the state, since otherwise it will not be able to overcome depopulation.

Fourthly, it seems to me that every citizen of the Russian Federation, starting from the president, should think very seriously about the future of their country, because so many years of depopulation can really mean extinction.

Fifthly, we should not turn a blind eye to the consequences of the crisis of the 90s. An analysis of the age-sex “pyramid” of the Russian population shows how much the consequences of such shocks affect the reproduction of the population, and it is clear that Russia may never recover from this crisis, which was also superimposed by the “Echo of War”.

Sixth, the demographic problem is very closely related to other problems of the country and the world. Any shock, be it an economic crisis, war, a change in the social or political system, certainly affects the birth rate, mortality, population growth, and, consequently, the demographic situation.

Seventh, despite the fact that the world as a whole has made great strides forward in the field of population planning over the past 20–30 years compared to the last century, it cannot yet be said that people have really learned to manage demographic processes. The Earth's population is still growing, and it is difficult to say both how much more it will grow and how much more the planet can sustain.

Eighth, even successful demographic policies have their negative consequences. An example of this is China, whose demographic policy, although it significantly reduced the rate of population growth, gave rise to a number of problems that China still has to solve.

Ninth, sometimes the state’s demographic policy can be expressed in very cruel methods, and yet it is better not to allow this.

Tenth, the only way out of the demographic explosion stage for developing countries is intensive economic development. Developed countries should help them overcome their backwardness.

List of used literature:

1. Aksenova M. (editor-in-chief) “Countries. Peoples. Civilizations" Encyclopedia for children, Moscow - "Avanta+", 2006, 704 p.

2. Altynov P.I., Balzhi A.B. and G.A., Gorbanev V.A. and others. “A short reference book for schoolchildren”, 6th edition, stereotypical, Moscow-“Drofa”, 2009, 811 p.

3. Dvigaleva A.A. “Exam for five. Social Science" 2nd edition, corrected and expanded, St. Petersburg - "Victory", 2008, 624 p.

4. Kravchenko A. article “Losses of the USSR and Germany in the Second World War”

5.Maksakovsky V.P. “Geographical Picture of the World” Book I “General Characteristics of the World” 4th edition, revised Moscow-“Drofa”, 2008, 495 pp.; Maksakovsky V.P. “Regional characteristics of the world” book II 3rd edition, revised Moscow-“Drofa”, 2007, 480 p.

Appendix No. 1

Table 1 Distribution of world population by region

table 2 15 countries with the highest GDP and 15 countries with the most low rate GDP

Appendix No. 2

Table 3 Top twenty countries by population

Table 4 Stages of demographic transition

Appendix No. 3

1. Average number of children per woman at the end of her childbearing years.

Table 5 Developing countries with the highest population replacement rates in 2005

Appendix No. 4

Table 6 European countries with negative population growth

Table 7 Average age of marriage in developing countries

Appendix No. 5

Table 8 Fertility, mortality and natural population growth in Russia from 1950 to 2008 (“Russian Cross”).

Appendix No. 6

Table 9 Age and sex structure of the population of the Russian Federation

Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 1

Global problems of humanity………………………………………………………………………………………….. 2

Demographic problem……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 4

Demographic policy as a way to solve the demographic problem……………………………. 8

Demographic situation in China and its demographic policy……………………………………..... 11

Demographic situation in India and its demographic policy……………………………………..… 14

Demographic situation in Russia. Its demographic policy……………………………………...… 17

Conclusion …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...…. 20

List of used literature…………………………………………………………………………………….…… 21

Appendix No. 1 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………...…….….. 22

Appendix No. 2 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………...……….…….. 23

Appendix No. 3 …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…. 24

Appendix No. 4 25

Appendix No. 5 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 26

Appendix No. 6 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 27

The totality of all people living on the planet (humanity) or on a certain territory - continent, country, republic, region, separate settlement - is called population. Various events that constantly happen to people, developing into certain processes, are studied by a special science - demography.

The population is constantly in motion, in quantitative and qualitative change, reproduced through a change of generations, as well as through territorial movements.

The world's population forms demographic situation, i.e. state demographic processes(growth and reproduction of the population, changes in its composition, migration mobility).

The rapid growth of the world population, most of which occurs in developing countries with backward economies and undeveloped social spheres, which are unable to turn this growth to the benefit of their development, creates global demographic problem, the importance and significance of which is now recognized by all states, which have realized that the relationship between population development and nature is more fragile than previously thought, that the growth of armed conflicts and the arms race, especially in developing countries, lead to enormous material costs, significantly worsening opportunities for economic and social development and thereby to solve population problems.

Uncontrollable migration And urbanization positive phenomena turn into negative ones. Solving all these problems is possible only with the joint efforts of the entire world community. This was greatly facilitated by the creation of 1969 within the UN UN Special Fund for activities in the field of population and under its auspices World conferences on population problems.

One of the main documents of the fund was World Population Action Plan (Programme), adopted in Bucharest (1997) for twenty years.

The program covered questions fertility, mortality and population growth rates, issues of urbanization and migration.

The basis for the actual solution of population problems according to the plan is, first of all, socio-economic transformations.

The program examines the relationships between population, sustainable economic growth and sustainable development, and calls for policies and laws to better support families and promote family stability.

Many states began to regulate population growth.

The government of the most populous country, China, has set out to limit the birth rate by prohibiting families from having more than one child.

As a result annual population growth decreased from 2.8 to 1.0% and became below the world average. Populous India also decided to follow the Chinese path.

In some developed countries (France, Germany, Denmark) policy, aimed at increasing the fertility rate: families with two or more children are allocated good benefits and are provided with various benefits.

Demographic problems in the world are part of the so-called global problems. Global problems are problems that affect the entire world and solutions that require the efforts of all humanity. These problems occurred in the second half of the 20th century, and they are getting worse in the 21st century. Their characteristic is a stable connection with each other.

The demographic problem is divided into two parts:

• The problem of strong population growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
• The problem of population decline and aging in Western Europe, Japan and Russia.

The problem of population growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America

Problems of demography in the world became especially important in the second half of the 20th century. During this time, significant changes have occurred in the social sphere of society:

• First, medicine has made great strides through the use of new drugs and new medical equipment. As a result, we were able to solve epidemics of diseases that previously destroyed hundreds of thousands of people and reduced the mortality rate due to the operation of other dangerous diseases.
• Secondly, since the mid-20th century, humanity has not fought world wars that could reduce the population.

As a result, deaths worldwide have fallen sharply. The planet's population reached 7 billion people at the beginning of the 21st century. About 6 billion live in third world countries - in Asia and Latin America.

These countries experienced a process called the population explosion.

The main reasons for the population explosion in third world countries:

• Still high birth rates along with low death rates.
• The important role of traditional religious and national values ​​prohibiting abortion and the use of contraception.
• Some countries in Central Africa are influenced by pagan culture. And consequently - a low level of morality and promiscuity.

In the 1950s and 1960s, the effects of the population explosion caused an optimistic decline in the population. However, it later became clear that the strong increase in the birth rate causes many problems:

• The problem of the number of working-age population.

  In some countries, the number of children under 16 years of age is the same, and in some even higher than the number of adults.

• The problem of the lack of territories that meet necessary conditions life and development of citizens.
• The problem of food shortages.
• The problem of shortage of raw materials.

Thus, the demographic problem is closely related to many other global problems.

At the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, a number of third world countries launched policies at the state level, which contributed to a decrease in the birth rate of the population. This applies primarily to China and India, where the series motto is widespread: “One family, one child.”

Families with one or two children began to take advantage of government benefits. This produced some results, while the birth rate was somewhat reduced.

However, population growth in these countries is still very high.

Get a free medical consultation

Characteristics of the demographic situation in developed countries

Developed Western countries have a serious influence on demographic problems in the world.

These countries have seen a clear downward trend in their aging populations over the past fifty years.

This means that, on the one hand, the number of older people and life expectancy are increasing. Reasons: improving the level of health and social services for citizens.

On the other hand, the birth rate is falling sharply, which means that the percentage of young people is decreasing.

Developed countries of the world from the point of view of the demographic situation can be divided into several groups:

• Countries where the population is growing due to their own fertility. This means that the country's birth rate exceeds its death rate. These are Slovakia, Ireland, France, England.
• Countries where population growth is still dependent on fertility are higher due to migration: Spain, Netherlands, Finland, Cyprus, USA, Canada, Italy, Greece, Germany.
• Countries whose population is declining due to excessive mortality due to births and emigration of their population to other countries: Bulgaria, Baltic countries, Poland.

What are the reasons for the decline in fertility in the West?

Firstly:

• The consequences of the sexual revolution in the sixties and seventies, when various methods contraception.
• Interest in career growth in the official field, which usually significantly increases the timing of marriage and the birth of children in the West.
• Family crisis in modern society: an increase in the proportion of divorces and unregistered coexistence.
• Increasing number of same-sex marriages.
• A very modern Western culture of “comfort”. The parent does not encourage the expense of additional efforts to increase and provide financial support to more children.

Further continuation of the process of reducing the birth rate in the countries of Western Europe threatens the disappearance of its own population and the replacement of its descendants from the countries of Asia and Africa. The beginning of this process can now be seen in Europe and the latest development of third world migrants is analyzed.

The current demographic situation in Russia

Demographic problems in the world have affected Russia. Our country can be classified as a European country of the second group. This means that we have a small population increase, but it is carried out not only with the help of birth rates, but also with immigration from the CIS countries.

In 2016, deaths in Russia exceeded births by about 70,000 per year. It moves into the state, over the same period of time, about 200 thousand.

Causes of the demographic problem in Russia:

• Consequences of the economic and social recession of the nineties of the last century.

  The low standard of living that many families justify abandoning a child. However, it should be borne in mind that in practice, the high standard of living in Western Europe leads to a decrease in the birth rate in the region.

• Lack of society in many Catholic and Muslim countries abroad due to long-standing communist rule of strong religious beliefs.
• Wrong government policies that force families with a large number of children in the country to receive long-term benefits.
• Lack of pro-abortion propaganda at the national level.

  Russia ranks among the first in the world in the number of abortions, along with Vietnam, Cuba and Ukraine.

Government policies in recent years aimed at providing financial support to families choosing a second and third child have brought results.

Improvement played a special role medical services. The country's birth rate has increased significantly, while the death rate has decreased slightly.

However, in Russia it is necessary to develop long-term and comprehensive programs to promote fertility, support large families, single mothers and reduce abortions.

Government activities aimed at raising the moral standards of the population can play an important role.

Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution

higher professional education

"Kuban State Technological University"

Faculty of Economics, Management and Business

Department of Economics and Financial Management

COURSE WORK

in the discipline "World Economy and International Economic Relations"

on the topic: “The world demographic problem and ways to solve it”

Completed

Puchkova O.N.

Krasnodar - 2013

Introduction

Theoretical basis world demography

2 Reasons influencing population dynamics

Analysis of world demographic problems

1 Analysis of population dynamics

2 Ways to solve the demographic problem

Conclusion

List of sources used

Introduction

In the modern era, rapid population growth has an increasing impact both on the life of individual states and on international relations in general.

In the modern world there are a huge number of problems, such as preventing nuclear war, overcoming the backwardness of developing countries, food and energy problems, eliminating dangerous diseases, environmental pollution and a number of other problems, but, in my opinion, the demographic one occupies a special place among them.

It determines the development of almost all global problems of humanity.

Due to the avalanche-like growth of the population on the planet, humanity is facing more and more new problems. The earth is several billion years old. If this period of time is compressed to one day, it turns out that humanity exists for no more than a second. However, according to UN estimates, by 2015 there will be about 8 billion people living on the planet. They will all need water, food, air, energy and a place in the sun. But the planet can no longer provide this to every person.

To provide people with everything they need, plants and factories are built, minerals are mined, and forests are cut down.

This causes enormous damage to nature, and it is difficult or impossible for humans to correct their mistakes. This could lead to a global environmental disaster.

The importance and significance of the demographic problem is recognized by all states. In a finite space, population growth cannot be infinite. Stabilization of the world population is one of the important conditions for the transition to sustainable environmental and economic development.

1. Theoretical foundations of world demography

1 The concept and essence of demography

Demography is the science of the patterns of population reproduction, the dependence of its character on socio-economic, natural conditions, migration, studying the size, territorial distribution and composition of the population, their changes, the causes and consequences of these changes and giving recommendations for their improvement.

Demography is sometimes called a type of practical activity of collecting data, describing and analyzing changes in the size, composition and reproduction of the population.

The history of demographic science has long been associated with the development of an empirical form of knowledge, limited to the collection, processing and interpretation of population data in accordance with practical needs.

The fulfillment of this function was accompanied by constant improvement of research methods.

The term “demography” appeared in 1855 in the title of the book by the French scientist A. Guillard, “Elements of Human Statistics, or Comparative Demography.” He viewed demography in a broad sense as “natural and social history of the human race" or more narrowly as "the mathematical knowledge of populations, their general movement, physical, civil, intellectual and moral state."

The concept of “demography” received official recognition in the name of the International Congress of Hygiene and Demography, held in Geneva in 1882.

Demography has its own clearly defined object of study—the population. Demography studies the size, territorial distribution and composition of the population

The unit of the population in demography is a person who has many characteristics - gender, age, marital status, education, occupation, nationality, etc. Many of these qualities change throughout life.

Therefore, the population always has such characteristics as size, age-sex structure, and family status. Change in the life of each person leads to changes in the population. These changes collectively constitute population movements.

Typically, population movements are divided into three groups:

• natural

Includes marriage rates, birth rates, and deaths, the study of which is the exclusive competence of demography.

• migration

This is the totality of all territorial movements of the population, which ultimately determine the nature of settlement, density, seasonal and pendulum mobility of the population.

• social

Transitions of people from one social group to another.

This type of movement determines the reproduction of social structures of the population. And it is precisely this relationship between population reproduction and changes in social structure that is studied by demography.

The “natural” or “biological” essence of the population is manifested in its ability to constantly renew itself in the process of generational change as a result of births and deaths.

And this continuous process is called population reproduction.

The processes of fertility, mortality, as well as marriage and divorce rates, being components of population reproduction, are called demographic processes.

To study demographic processes, a system of statistical indicators is used: all these indicators, as a rule, have a quantitative expression, which are based on measurements of demographic phenomena and processes.

Demographic analysis is the main method of processing information to obtain demographic indicators.

Two types of demographic analysis are most common.

Ø Longitudinal analysis is a method for studying demographic processes in which they are described and analyzed in cohorts, i.e.

that is, in populations of people who simultaneously entered a certain demographic state. This means that demographic events are considered in their natural sequence. The advantage of longitudinal analysis is the ability to study the calendar of demographic events (i.e.

e. the distribution of events over periods of a cohort’s life) and changes in this calendar under the influence of certain conditions. By comparing the frequency of demographic events in different cohorts at different stages of their lives in a longitudinal analysis, one can obtain a correct idea of ​​both the impact of changes in living conditions on the dynamics of demographic processes, and of these dynamics themselves.

Disadvantages: “lag” of observation results from real processes. The full demographic history of a cohort becomes known only when it emerges from a given demographic state

ØCross-sectional analysis consists in the fact that the frequency of events is considered at a “slice” at any point in time. As a result, a conditional generation is studied, which includes people in each age interval, and during, for example, a year, some of them experience certain demographic events.

The frequency of events covers the entire duration of a given state. Cross-sectional analysis is the most common technique for demographic description and analysis due to the availability of information.

Most indicators are usually indicators for a conditional generation. However, there is also a drawback: with sharp changes in the intensity of demographic processes over time, it can give a distorted picture of the pattern of changes in this process.

population demographic policy

1.2 Factors influencing population dynamics

Among the factors influencing the nature of demographic development, two groups are distinguished.

The first group is formed by objective factors: established traditions, the state of the international situation, the consequences of wars, other social upheavals, etc.

The second group consists of factors whose influence is more or less controllable.

For example, progress in medical science, the quality of medical care, the cultural and educational level of the population, the standard of living in various aspects - housing security, living conditions, income, etc.

The influence of each factor is calculated separately, after which the total influence of all factors is determined.

Forecast calculations use multifactor dynamic models in which the values ​​of demographic indicators are presented as functions, and factors as arguments.

In integral form, the combined influence of all factors can be expressed as the following formula:

Дп = F(y1+y2+…yn) (1.1)

where Dp is the forecast value of the demographic indicator; y2...yn is the quantitative values ​​of various factors in the forecast period; the number of factors taken into account in the calculations.

Among the forecasted indicators, the most important are the following: the country's population by year of the forecast period, population growth rates, population structure, its dynamics, labor potential, economic potential of the population, consumer potential of the population, life fund of the population, etc.

The projected population size depends on the birth rate, mortality rate, population structure, the scale and intensity of migration processes.

The birth rate is influenced by the gender and age structure of the population, the scale of government assistance to young families, etc.

The dynamics of mortality depends on the quality of medical care, efficiency social protection low-income segments of the population, on the intensity of work and its conditions, the state of the environmental situation, etc.

The intensity of migration processes is influenced by the possibility of employment in a new place of residence, psychological readiness to move, and the ability to adapt to new conditions.

The labor potential of the population is an indicator reflecting its economic capabilities.

To determine labor potential, it is necessary to have information on the average working life of individual age groups of the population (or generations).

Generation length is about 30 years.

This is the period of time between the birth of father and son, mother and daughter.

Theoretically, the average working life is 44 years for men and 39 years for women.

In reality it is smaller. The reduction in actual working life is taken into account using appropriate coefficients. In addition, the calculations take into account the labor fund of the disabled population.

Based on the labor potential of the population, its economic potential is calculated. It determines the possible results of realizing the labor potential of the population and is calculated as the product of the forecast labor productivity of people engaged in labor activities by the forecast number, taking into account the fact that the labor productivity of people of different age groups is not the same.

The indicator of consumer potential of the population reflects the volume of food and non-food products that can be consumed by the population during the forecast period. It is calculated as the product of the norms of consumption of goods differentiated by gender, age, professional, social and other groups by the projected population of the corresponding groups.

The difference between the values ​​of economic and consumer potential expresses economic efficiency population life (Ezh):

Ezh = Opr - PP.

The population life expectancy indicator determines the number of years that different age groups and the entire population can live under the socio-economic conditions of the forecast period.

It is calculated as the product of the average life expectancy of the population of various age groups by the size of the contingent of each group.

The population is constantly increasing, in 1961

3 billion people lived on Earth, in 2011 - 7 billion people. According to demographers, by 2050 the world population will reach 9 billion people. The most people at the beginning of 2012 lived in China (1 billion 350 million), India (1 billion 222 million), Pakistan (175 million), Bangladesh (162 million), Nigeria (154 million) , Russia (143 million) and Japan (127 million).

There are two types of population reproduction:

evolutionary;

population explosion.

The first is characterized by low rates of natural growth, while the second is characterized by high and very high rates.

The population is growing at different rates across countries and regions.

In order to regulate the population, governments use demographic policy - a set of administrative, economic, social and other measures that influence the natural movement of the population in the desired direction.

In the People's Republic of China, the policy is aimed at curbing population growth: "One family - one child", in India it is carried out according to the principle: "We are two - we are two."

The governments of many European countries are creating additional financial incentives for early marriage and childbearing.

Fertility also depends on historical traditions, religion, geographical factors, health care, and standard of living. The higher the level of economic development and well-being of the population, the lower the population growth rate. To a certain extent, this is explained by the emancipation of women who want to get higher education, to make a career, to realize oneself as an individual, therefore the period for starting a family and having a child is postponed from 18-20 years to 27-30 years.

The lower the level of economic development of a country, the higher the birth rate. Every new baby in the family, especially the boy, is considered as the future breadwinner and support for his aging parents. The highest birth rates are in Africa and Latin America, and the lowest in Europe. The current age structure of the world's population looks like this: children (0-14 years old) - 34%, adults (15-64 years old) - 58%, elderly (65 years old and above) - 8%.

An important indicator of the level of socio-economic development of a country is life expectancy, which depends on many factors: climate, ecology, level of well-being, physical activity, healthcare systems, rational nutrition, etc.

According to scientists, the period of human biological life can be 150-160 years, and the actual life expectancy for men is 72-74 years, for women - 70-80 years. People live the longest in Japan: men - 78 years, women - 86 years. In addition to paying attention to their health, gerontologists note optimism, emotional restraint, and goodwill in communication among the Japanese.

Russia ranks 129th with indicators of 59 years for men and 73 years for women. Swaziland is in last place - 32 and 33 years, respectively.

Socio-demographic problems of modern Russian society: state and solutions

And the main reason for the current demographic crisis is that over the past 15 years the country has been pursuing a socio-economic and political course that is absolutely alien to the national-state interests of the country and the interests of the Russian people.

This means that demographic problems can only be solved by comprehensively solving the country’s main socio-economic problems.

In other words, by creating the most favorable conditions for people to live in Russia.
current demographic problems in Russia:

- low birth rate, which has long been unable to ensure even simple reproduction of the population.
- this is an extremely high mortality rate for Russians.

Thirdly, there is low life expectancy in our country.

All together this leads to a general decline in the population in Russia.

Currently, the country's population is declining annually by almost 700 thousand people.

Among other acute demographic problems, the following should be noted:

— a noticeable decrease in the share of children and youth in the population structure;

— growth in the share of citizens of retirement age;

— more than a twofold increase in the number of disabled people over the past 13 years;

— an increase in the share of migrants, including illegal ones.

There are 13 thousand settlements in the country without inhabitants and almost the same number where less than 10 people live.

This situation is particularly dangerous for the border regions in the east of the country, where the population density in the adjacent regions of neighboring states is 100 or more times higher than the density Russian population. This means that we risk simply losing these territories.

First of all, in Russia there is no single method for solving the demographic problem. It is possible to ensure the growth of the nation only in a complex manner, raising both the economy and the social sphere, as well as qualitatively developing the infrastructure in the country.

Ways out of the “demographic hole”

First. Since deteriorating health conditions are one of the main causes of excess mortality among Russians of all ages, a qualitative modernization of the entire healthcare system in the country is needed.

Second. This is an immediate solution to the housing problem throughout the country.

It is impossible not to notice that the lack of adequate housing directly inhibits the birth rate, especially among young people. The country must create efficient system mortgages available to everyone who wants to buy their own home.

Its terms must be understandable to people and beneficial to them.

Third. This is a change in the income distribution system for all Russian citizens. the main task— this is a significant increase in the income of every Russian family. In fact, the country needs a new social policy. After all, poverty and misery remain the worst enemies of the bulk of Russian families.

Fourth. This is a change in the course of state economic policy that impedes the normal development of the nation.

Fifth. It is necessary to revive the traditions of a healthy lifestyle in the country. Indeed, today the completely opposite situation is observed everywhere. Drunkenness and alcoholism have become widespread phenomena, especially in rural areas.

Sixth. It is necessary to suppress crime, restore the moral foundations of society and, first of all, the value of human life.

Thus, we have more suicides than even intentional murders. The suicide rate in our country is more than twice the world average. There continues to be real chaos on the roads in the country. Every year, a number of citizens equal to the population of a small city die in traffic accidents.
Deaths and injuries at work and at home remain extremely high. The inability of the state to suppress terrorism and organized crime and the inculcation of the cult of force and violence through the media have an extremely negative impact on the moral and psychological state of society.

If we implement the six main positions presented, then this will be enough for a radical change in the development of the demographic situation in our country: from the deepest crisis to the normalization of the situation and the gradual revival of the nation.

Social projects and programs in the SR system

SR Project understood as a system of: formulated project goals; social networks created for these purposes.

institutions, physical objects, social systems. protection; relevant documents developed and approved - programs, plans, calculations, estimates, etc.; calculated necessary resources - material, financial, labor, time; complex management decisions, activities (measures) to achieve goals.

Any type of project is characterized by a life cycle, i.e.

the period of time from the moment of its appearance until the end of practical implementation. Life cycle project can be divided into phases that represent certain microcycles: concept; analysis; Problems; concept development; project development; evaluation of results; summarizing.

Execution (implementation) of social The project requires a certain set of works, which are divided into basic and supporting. TO basic work include: pre-project analysis; determination of the main goal(s); social project planning; social development

project, the result of which are documents, decisions, estimates, etc.; acceptance and approval of social project; its implementation (implementation) and making necessary adjustments along the way; summing up the results of the project. Let's look at each stage.

Pre-design analysis includes the study (research, analysis, diagnosis) of the corresponding social.

a problem that is supposed to be solved in a “project” version, for example, through the development and implementation of some kind of program. The results of the analysis are expressed in the form of a description of the situation, characteristics of conditions, social “photographs”, passports, etc. The main goal is determined on the basis of pre-project analysis and is reflected in the formulation of the goal (goals).

Planning social

project consists of identifying specific developers with establishing tasks and deadlines for the upcoming development of the project. Social development project consists in determining the list of measures (events) and responsible executors, making the necessary calculations for resources, concluding contracts for the performance of work, supply of materials, equipment, etc.

The result of the development are, for example, a specific social program or plan, as well as corresponding calculations for calendar periods.

Acceptance and approval social project takes place according to a special procedure and is recorded in an official document. Performance a social project is usually provided by the existing structure.

Works, providing social

project, grouped by the following types: informational, analytical, expert, organizational, coordination, legal, financial, personnel, motivational, logistical, supply, commercial, educational, forecasting, propaganda.

An important condition in supporting organizational and managerial work is the appointment of a head of the social project being implemented, who is endowed with powers, responsibilities and rights.

The project manager may be given the right to form “his own team” (temporary team) to perform supporting work.

Social programs

Program is a developed and implemented set of tasks and activities that have a specific content and are aimed at achieving the final goal.

Social programs- one of the types of programs. Each feature reflects one or another aspect of the program - content, level, time. Programs can be thought of as a type of project.

Various social activities may not have any connections with each other and are carried out in isolation, but if they exist, activities for the development and implementation of one or more social services. projects are combined into one social network. program.

In the management process, situations arise when one or another area of ​​activity needs to be highlighted. Then it takes shape target program, which “fits” into the existing organizational structure of management or a special structure is created for its implementation, or both occur.

The target program and the control system that ensures its implementation (execution) are called program-target control (PTC). If a program does not have a supporting structure or does not work well, then it “freezes,” i.e. its implementation is problematic. This is one of the common “software diseases”.

Social projects:“Support for culture and art”; “Support for the charity project of the Nadezhda Foundation”; “Books for visually impaired and blind children”, etc.

programs: “Social development of rural areas until 2013”; Program "South of Russia (2008 - 2013)"; "Demographic development Altai Territory"for 2010 - 2015, etc.

90 .Criteria for the effectiveness of social implementation. programs and social projects

Assessing the effectiveness of government implementation. programs includes certain principles and criteria that should reflect the conceptual provisions of program-target planning and management - management by results.

A characteristic feature of results-based management is the clear linking of budget funds to planned results, in contrast to normative (cost-based) budgeting.

World practice allows us to highlight the following advantages of program-targeted planning and result-oriented budgeting:

Funding is provided for those public goods and services, the quantity, quality, cost, time and place of provision of which best meet the needs of society and are characterized by the highest indicators of social efficiency under given resource constraints.

There is an opportunity to critically reflect on the current areas of spending funds and abandon many types of expenses carried out without proper socio-economic justification for the need for these expenses.

3. The choice of decisions is made taking into account not only immediate, but more distant consequences; The responsibility of government ministries for the final result is increasing, which means not just providing a certain volume of services or performing a certain amount of work, but also achieving certain quality indicators.

Regular publication of reports on the achieved results of ministries' activities allows the public to realistically evaluate the government's activities.

4. The validity of government spending decisions is improved. The information base of budget decisions taken by the government is significantly increasing. In particular, having information about how different levels of program funding can affect the social and economic efficiency of government spending has made it possible to reduce spending without cutting programs.

It becomes possible to realistically assess the financial condition of the state, thanks to a more complete picture of the resources at its disposal.

This is particularly important for managing future risks, especially the risk that future generations will be saddled with an unsustainable burden of financial liabilities resulting from implicit or unrecorded commitments.

The transition to results-based budgeting involves the development of a system of indicators that would allow monitoring and evaluating the results of budget expenditures made within the framework of programs developed based on the principles of results-based budgeting.

Basic principles for assessing the effectiveness of the implementation of government programs: independence, objectivity, ensuring maximum socio-economic efficiency, professional competence, openness and transparency.

Taking into account the existing principles for assessing the effectiveness of the implementation of government programs, we will define the main criteria for assessing the effectiveness of government programs:

Feasibility (relevance) - compliance of the project goal with the tasks that were to be addressed within the project, as well as the physical and strategic conditions in which the project was carried out, including an analysis of the quality of preparation and structure of the project - the logic and completeness of the project planning process, as well as internal logic and consistency with the project structure.

Effectiveness – how well the project activities are implemented. The fact that the results were achieved at a reasonable cost, i.e. how well the invested funds were converted into results achieved in qualitative, quantitative and time terms, as well as into the quality of the results achieved: targeted distribution of financial resources, personnel compliance, technical compliance, time compliance by stages and activities.

Effectiveness - analysis of the role of the results in achieving the project goal, and how the forecasts made affected the project’s achievements: achieving the final result of the program, achieving the immediate results of the program.

Project controllability – the presence of clear functional, resource and time assignments, the presence of monitoring mechanisms and media coverage, the presence of a self-assessment system at various stages of program implementation.

The effect of the project (socio-economic effect) is the significance of the project for the wider environment, and its contribution to the expansion of (sectoral) objectives summarized in general tasks project, as well as in achieving state policy goals that stand above all other ones.

6. Sustainability - an assessment of the likelihood that the benefits and benefits of the project will continue to flow after the completion of external financing, with specific reference to factors related to the ownership of beneficiaries, policy support factors, economic and financial factors, social aspects cultural nature, gender equality, availability of appropriate technology, environmental aspects, as well as institutional and managerial capacity factors.

Systems of indicators and indicators for assessing the effectiveness of programs, at the level of which the evaluation criteria are specified, are developed in the process of working on the program, which allows you to avoid many mistakes:

The declarative purpose of the program and, as a consequence, the impossibility of assessing the effectiveness and efficiency of the program.

2. Lack of connection between the declared abstract goal and equally declarative tasks.

Program monitoring indicators, if available, are not linked into a logical system, which does not allow drawing conclusions about the progress of the program.

The process of intermediate and final evaluation of the program is extremely labor-intensive and, sometimes, impossible, which does not allow using the experience accumulated during the implementation of the program for the development of subsequent program documents.

The development of principles and criteria for assessing the effectiveness of government programs has special meaning to avoid waste of budget funds and control the effectiveness of social and economic development programs of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Previous16171819202122232425262728293031Next

Alcoholism is a social threat

2. Ways to solve the global population problem

Analysis of the state of the social sphere in Russia and the Ivanovo region

Firstly, the aggravation of the situation in the housing and communal services sector...

Victimology: the doctrine of sacrifice

5. Victimization: ways to solve the problem

I would like to believe that someday the day will come in our country when the head of a security unit, when asked by journalists about the current tasks of the structure entrusted to him, will focus not on the “fight” against crime...

Bad habits of young people in the mirror of sociology

2.

Possible solutions to the problem

In my opinion, bad habits young people need to be replaced by useful ones. As they say, we knock out wedges with wedges.

What I mean is that we need to provide teenagers with the opportunity to play sports, visit museums and exhibitions...

Demographic consequences of emigration

3. Ways to solve the problem

Currently, in Russia there is an urgent need for action to prevent negative (“pushing”) conditions for emigration.

The emigration of scientists leads to a sharp slowdown in priority areas of science, that is, those areas...

Marginal layer in Russian society

3. Ways to solve the problem of marginality in Russia

An approach to solving the problem of marginality in society should be based on the fact that marginality is considered primarily as an object of control and management at the national level...

Young people and their attitude towards civil marriage

2 Problems of civil marriage and ways to solve them

Youth as an object of social protection

4.

Problems of youth employment and ways to solve them

Social work in space labor relations addressed primarily to the unemployed. However, it would be wrong in principle to consider it only from this angle...

Problems of young families and ways to solve them

2.Problems of young families and ways to solve them

Currently, the main efforts of the state are directed to those areas of socio-economic policy that directly determine the quality of life of citizens.

The priority among them is issues of a young family...

Problems of financing the social sphere in the Russian Federation using the example of pensions

2.2 Problems of financing the pension sector and ways to solve them

Reorientation of the Russian economy from a rigid planning and distribution strategy to market relations and the destruction of the state monopoly in the economic sphere...

Rural areas: main problems and development prospects

2.

Main problems and possible solutions

To summarize what has been said...

The state of the social sphere in Russia and the region

2.2 Problems of social policy in Russia and ways to solve them

I. Among the main problems that have accumulated in the housing sector and require solutions, four groups of problems are particularly acute.

Firstly, the aggravation of the situation in the housing and communal services sector...

Social status of a young family

3. Problems of a young family and ways to solve them

Aging society

2.2. Ways to solve the problem of population aging

The growing proportion of elderly and old people in the population makes it necessary to study the composition of this part, their needs, requirements, biological and social capabilities.

Demographic aging is becoming a national problem...

Structure women's problems with an emphasis on the family aspect

In accordance with the results of statistical and mathematical calculations and forecasts, we hypothesize that increasing the level of GDP production, living standards, basic indicators of employment and other economic indicators can return the demographic situation in Russia to the stage of the “demographic transition” at which it was interrupted in the early 1990s with the onset of economic, social and demographic crises. Thus, promising tasks fall into two groups. The first group of tasks is relevant at the present time and is being solved at the stage of Russia’s emergence from the demographic crisis and return to the “demographic transition” track. The second group of tasks is related to the long-term perspective and the beginning of Russia’s movement following the countries that have gone farthest along the trajectory of the “demographic transition,” especially in terms of reducing mortality and increasing life expectancy. Of course, following these countries, Russia will inevitably face the threat of an aging population, balancing the birth rate at a relatively low level that does not ensure natural reproduction, and problems in the field of immigration.

It can be concluded that an increase in fertility and a decrease in mortality to levels close to those observed in the late 1980s could occur as a result of growth in GDP and living standards to corresponding values. This means that the basis of demographic policy for the coming years is the growth of production, employment, income of the population, an increase in housing construction and its real affordability for the population. That is, demographic policy in a broad sense is all economic policy. However, this does not mean that the state has the right to refrain from pursuing demographic policy in the narrow sense - solving specific problems of population reproduction using methods that have long been tested in France and other foreign countries and were partially used in our country until 1991.

First of all, it is necessary to strengthen the stimulation of the birth rate by increasing family benefits in connection with the birth and upbringing of children to levels comparable to the subsistence level (calculated for each child of the appropriate age). The costs that may be imposed on the state budget are not comparable with the future damage from depopulation if measures against this latter are not taken without delay. Of course, special programs for developing health care, improving working conditions, combating domestic injuries and other measures to combat mortality are also needed.

In addition it is necessary:

meeting the needs of families for preschool education services;

availability of housing for families with children;

stimulating the birth rate - providing maternal (family) capital, flexibility of forms..., banning the promotion of abortion, strengthening the family, improving material living conditions;

improving health, especially among young people;

reducing mortality (fighting alcoholism, drug addiction);

increasing life expectancy (fighting mass diseases, increasing prosperity, improving health);

strive for change moral values when the priority of family life becomes the need not for a water child, but for several;

in love for children;

It is necessary to raise the prestige of large families.

In addition to the listed measures, efforts to develop attitudes towards self-preservation behavior and a healthy lifestyle of the population may be useful.

The strategic goals of migration policy are based on priorities, which are: preservation of demographic, labor and defense potential, geopolitical balance, normalization of settlement proportions, primarily the settlement of underdeveloped and border areas, etc. Implementation of effective policies in the field of regulation of migration and population, in particular , involves using the migration potential of the CIS and Baltic countries in the interests of the demographic development of the Russian Federation, effectively protecting the rights of forced migrants and refugees throughout the country, and promoting the integration of forced migrants into Russian society.

It remains necessary to profile various categories of immigrants to Russia and move to a differentiated system of privileged attraction of compatriots (repatriates) from among the indigenous peoples of the Russian Federation and countries in integration relations with it - currently Belarus - with appropriate provision of housing for them. , work, all types of social benefits (following the models of Germany and Israel), limited admission, based on strict criteria, all other categories of foreign citizens (regardless of their origin from the CIS and Baltic countries or other countries). Among the criteria for admitting the latter category of migrants to Russia may be family reunification, compelling reasons for obtaining political refugee status, the availability of capital for investment in the Russian economy, and the presence of specialties and qualifications that are in short supply on the Russian labor market (modeled on the United States and a number of other countries). It is also advisable to introduce quotas for the latter category of immigrants and pursue a strict policy of deportation of persons unjustifiably (illegally) staying on the territory of the Russian Federation. When carrying out migration policy, it should be borne in mind that the reception and decent placement of desirable (privileged) categories of immigrants should be of a massive nature and serve both to compensate for Russia’s demographic losses (in particular, negative natural increase) and to improve the quality of its labor force as a result of the influx qualified specialists and persons with a sufficiently high level of education.

In the mid-1970s. Birth rates in the “old” and “new” worlds practically coincided. Changes in institutional control over the sphere of sexuality and childbirth were also unidirectional. The spearhead of youth unrest in the second half of the 1960s. on both sides of the Atlantic was not least directed against forms of such control that were unacceptable to the new generation. Although the “May Revolution” of 1968 in Paris ended, as it seemed then, with the defeat of young people who rebelled against the “system,” just a few years later, significant liberalization of family and reproductive legislation began in both Europe and the United States. This happened partly because in the thermonuclear era the “demographic competition” of the great powers lost its military-political relevance, and partly due to the widespread revision of the functions of the state.

Legislative acts legalizing abortion were adopted: in England in 1967, Denmark and the USA - in 1973, Sweden - in 1974, France - 1975-1979, Germany - 1976. In Italy, in referendums in 1974 and 1978 the majority of voters opposed the repeal of laws that allowed divorce and legalized abortion. Events formed into such a consistent picture of the triumph of liberal values ​​that it was time to talk about the “end of history” a decade before F. Fukuyama wrote about it (in a broader context). Suddenly this picture began to fall apart. Three levels of fertility have emerged:

The highest, close to the level of simple reproduction, is in the USA;

Relatively low - Western European;

Ultra-low - southern European (most pronounced in Italy).

Almost simultaneously with the divergence in fertility trends, differences in trends in institutional control over the sphere of sexuality and childbirth began to appear. As the attitude of European politicians and the public towards abortion, extramarital cohabitation and same-sex marriage became increasingly liberal, conservative trends gained strength in the United States.

The “first sign” was the refusal in 1984 of the administration of R. Reagan, an irreconcilable opponent of abortion, to fund foreign organizations facilitating their implementation. In 2003, George W. Bush signed an executive order banning abortions in late pregnancy, and a year later, an act protecting unborn victims of violence. In February 2004, he also proposed an amendment to the US Constitution to exclude the possibility of legal registration of same-sex marriages. These initiatives were motivated by moral considerations and the fundamental importance of Christian values ​​for the American nation.

In general, differences in the attitudes of Americans and Europeans towards religion are increasingly increasing. Thus, recent comparative studies have shown that religion plays a very important role in the lives of 59% of US residents. This is much more than in the UK (33%), Italy (27%), Germany (21%), Russia (14%), France (11%). In American society, the positions of opponents of abortion are strengthening. If in the mid-1990s, judging by polls by the Gallup Institute, 33% of Americans surveyed defined their position as pro-life (in defense of life, against abortion), and pro-choice (for freedom of choice, against the ban on abortion) - 56 %, then in 2000 these figures were 45% and 47%, respectively. Changes in reproductive legislation initiated by the Republican administration are supported by the overwhelming majority of conservative Christian voters

Over the past decades, conservative patterns of demographic behavior have remained widespread among the US population. The total fertility rate for white non-Hispanic women in the country is 1.9, which is noticeably higher than in the vast majority of European countries. By 2002, 40.4% of American women in this category aged 40-44 who were (or were previously) married had already given birth to two children, another 20.1% had three, and 8.7% had four or more children. . 45% of American women aged 15 to 44 with children are economically inactive (that is, not working, not looking for work, or not ready to start work). Thus, we can talk about the widespread prevalence in the United States of the “conservative-demographic” syndrome, which includes interconnected conservative models of not only political and electoral, but also demographic behavior.

It is necessary to note a number of other factors that have a positive effect on the birth rate in the United States. This is fast growth wages American women, which allowed many of them to give birth to children “without regard” to not very reliable partners; the rapid growth of the child care services market; fairly generous subsidization of parents' expenses for such services from federal funds. In addition, structural changes in the labor market have led to an increase in the number of part-time jobs (32% of working women aged 15 to 44 with children work in them). Finally, it is worth mentioning the rapid growth in the number of Hispanics (currently about 13% of all US residents), who are characterized by a slightly higher birth rate than the rest of the country's population (the total fertility rate in 2000 was, respectively, 3.1 and 2.1).

Since the early 1980s. Fertility trends in Western European countries also began to diverge. If in the latter there was a stabilization of the total fertility rate at a level (on average for the region) of 1.6-1.7 with a rapid increase in the share of out-of-wedlock births, then in Italy the total fertility rate fell to unprecedentedly low levels (about 1.2), while the share of out-of-wedlock births grew much more slowly.

The roots of this phenomenon lie in the specific Italian relationships between institutions such as the state, church, family and marriage. The strength of family ties and family entrepreneurship have long compensated for the weakness and inefficiency of the state in Italy. Such an organization of society sharply increases the individual’s dependence on the family and imposes special responsibilities on older family members towards younger ones, because without family protection it is very difficult to find a worthy place in life.

In Italy, marriage still has unconditional moral priority over non-marital union. The attitude towards the institution of marriage remains quite serious - in the age group of 20-24 years this institution is considered outdated by only 11.6% of women and 15.3% of men. In addition, the divorce procedure is still quite complex. As a result, people do not marry because it is too responsible, and do not create extramarital unions because it is reprehensible. While in Northern and Western Europe out-of-wedlock births make a significant contribution to the total number of births, this does not happen in Southern Europe.

The marital birth rate is also low. Italians would still like to have two or three children in their families5. However, the norms of Italian familismo (familismo), that is, nepotism, have a lowering effect on the birth rate, because they require parents to zealously care about the education and professional career of their children, and these are very expensive enterprises. In addition, the labor market in Italy offers fewer opportunities for flexible employment for women compared to other economically developed countries. As a result, young people postpone marriage until the last possible opportunity, which adversely affects the level of marital fertility. Late marriage is also facilitated by the centuries-old tradition of parents and children living together in a number of regions of Italy, the high cost of rented housing, and the high, although declining, level of youth unemployment. Much of the above is also typical for Spain, where the birth rate is also noticeably lower than in Western Europe.

USSR and countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) since the mid-1960s. faced stagnation or decline in life expectancy. The transformational recession has worsened the situation everywhere. The UN report in this regard calls the loss of human lives associated with the decrease in life expectancy of young and middle-aged men in a number of CEE countries (especially in Russia) as the most severe “human cost” of the transition from one socio-economic system to another. However, the magnitude of this decrease and the subsequent dynamics of indicators in the east and west of the region under consideration were different.

The first to emerge from the decline in life expectancy were the Czech Republic and Slovakia (in 1991), Poland (in 1992), Hungary (in 1994), followed by Romania, Bulgaria and Moldova (in 1997, 1998 and 1999, respectively) gg.). In Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, a steady increase in life expectancy has not begun to date.

The depth of the life expectancy crisis in various countries of the region and the timing of recovery from it were determined by the nature of interaction between institutions of various types and levels:

law enforcement and health care institutions;

property rights;

permanent ways of thinking and acting that have become habit and custom.

The countries in which:

the nature of socio-economic transformations corresponded to the mindset of the majority of the population;

law enforcement and health care institutions were more easily reformed;

the alcohol subculture had a lesser role in economic, political and everyday life;

the standard of living before the transformational recession was relatively high;

there were favorable political and economic conditions for foreign investment.

The essence of the demographic problem

The essence of the demographic problem is reflected in the modern demographic situation:

1. In developed countries, with progressive economic transformations, there is a demographic crisis, characterized by a drop in the birth rate, population decline and aging.
2. The demographic problem in developed countries appears through an increase in the number of abortions (Germany, France, Belgium, Denmark, Hungary), as well as an increase in suicide cases.
3. Countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America are experiencing rapid population growth. Developing countries are increasingly less able to provide their population with the necessary food and material goods, provide basic education, and provide work for able-bodied people. The burden of the disabled population on the able-bodied population is increasing.
4. Third world countries have a population three times larger than developed countries.
5. A population explosion is observed in developing countries, with the most low level economic and social development. In many of these countries, measures are being taken to reduce the birth rate, but the majority of the population is illiterate.
6. Environmental problems and environmental pollution are growing rapidly, and the maximum permissible load on the ecosystem is far exceeded.

The demographic problem is closely interconnected with other global problems:

• problem of lack of resources,
• ecological problem,
• fuel and energy problem.

Ways to solve the demographic problem

Note 1

The demographic problem can only be solved by combining the efforts of the entire world community. Members of the Club of Rome were among the first to notify the world community of upcoming global demographic problems.

Ways to solve the problem:

• implementation of demographic policy;
• population regulation through family planning;
• carrying out socio-economic transformations leading to an increase in living standards, and, as a consequence, to stabilization of the population through a decrease in the birth rate;
• collection, analysis and dissemination of information on the demographic situation;
• development of recommendations for UN member states and the international community on the implementation of demographic policy;
• research and analysis of population problems, interaction of social, demographic, economic and environmental processes;
• holding conferences at the intergovernmental level on population.

To provide the population with the necessary material and agricultural products it is necessary:

• increase crop productivity;
• develop more productive breeds of livestock;
• widely introduce aquaculture;
• make fuller use of the biological productivity of the World Ocean;
• introduce energy-saving technologies;
• reduce consumption of natural resources.

To solve the demographic problem, international programs have been developed and are being implemented.

• In 1969, a UN fund operating in the field of population was created.
• Three World Conferences on Population Problems were held.
• In 1997, the World Population Program was developed in Bucharest and covered more than 100 countries, including about 1,400 projects.

Main issues included in the program:

• development of laws that provide effective support for the family and promote its stability;
• population growth rate;
• fertility and mortality issues;
• migration issues;
• urbanization problem.

Note 2

To effectively solve the population problem, effective and high-quality socio-economic transformations are necessary. The World Program points out the close relationship between sustainable economic growth, sustainable development and population.

Many countries have policies to regulate population growth, aimed at increasing or decreasing it:

• ban on having more than 1-2 children (China, India);
• providing additional benefits to families with one child (China);
• propaganda of small/large children;
• provision of benefits and benefits to families with children (Russia);
• improving health care and social security.

In the relatively recent past, even before the era of antibiotics and with widespread hunger, humanity did not particularly think about its numbers. And there was a reason, since constant wars and massive famine claimed millions of lives.

Particularly indicative in this regard were the two World Wars, when the losses of all warring parties exceeded 70-80 million people. Historians believe that more than 100 million died, since the actions of the Japanese militarists in China to this day have not been adequately studied, although they killed a huge number of civilians.

Today there are other global problems. The demographic problem is one of the most serious and important among them. However, one should not assume that the sharp increase in the human population began exclusively in our days. In the distant past, there were also sharp jumps in the population of individual countries, and all these processes often led to very serious consequences in global significance.

What does the population explosion lead to?

It is believed that sudden population surges do have a positive side. The fact is that in this case, entire countries become “younger,” and medical costs are reduced. But that's where all the good things end.

The number of beggars is increasing sharply, expenses on education are growing manifold, the number of graduates educational institutions The number of specialists is increasing so much that the country simply cannot provide them with employment. A huge number of young and healthy people who are willing to do work for a very modest remuneration. As a result, the cost of their labor (already cheap) drops to a minimum. Crime begins to rise, robberies and murders quickly become the “calling card” of the state.

Comprehensive vision of the problem

In addition, in many regions of Central Africa, the population has already been reduced to such a miserable state that a large number of children who will work in the fields or beg is the only means of survival for the family. Growing up, they join the ranks of countless armed groups that continue to drive the entire region into even greater chaos. The reason is the lack of even basic government support for social development, the absence of any sources of official income.

Other dangers of overpopulation

It is known that the level of consumption of modern civilization is many thousand times higher than the level of normal biological needs of humans. Even the poorest countries are consuming more than they did a couple of hundred years ago.

Of course, with a sharp increase in the population, the general impoverishment of most of it and the complete inability of state structures to establish at least some semblance of control over all this, the irrational consumption of resources is increasing like an avalanche. The consequence of this is a manifold increase in the discharge of toxic waste from handicraft enterprises, mountains of garbage and complete neglect of at least some environmental measures.

What does all this lead to?

As a result, the country is on the verge of an environmental disaster, and the population is on the verge of starvation. Do you think modern demographic problems began only in recent years? In Africa, for example, since the mid-60s, in entire provinces, people began to suffer from food shortages. Western medicines made it possible to increase life expectancy, but its general structure remained the same.

Many children were born, more and more land was needed to feed them. And farming there is still carried out using the slash-and-burn method. As a result, hectares of fertile soil turned into deserts, subject to wind erosion and leaching.

These are all global problems. The demographic problem (as you can see) is characteristic of transitional cultures that have gained rapid access to the benefits of modern civilization. They do not know how to rebuild or do not want to, as a result of which severe socio-cultural contradictions arise, which can even lead to war.

Reverse example

However, in our world there are many countries in which the demographic problem is presented from a completely opposite angle. We are talking about developed countries, where the problem is precisely that people of reproductive age do not want to start families and do not give birth to children.

As a result, migrants take the place of indigenous peoples, who often contribute to the complete destruction of the entire sociocultural component of the ethnic group that previously lived in this territory. Of course, this is not a very life-affirming ending, but without active intervention and participation of the state, such a problem cannot be solved.

How can the demographic problem be resolved?

So what are the ways to solve the demographic problem? Methods of solution follow logically from the causes of the phenomenon. Firstly, it is imperative to raise the standard of living of the population and improve their medical care. It is known that in poor countries mothers are often forced to give birth to many children, not only because of traditions, but also because of high

If every child survives, there will be less point in having a dozen children. Unfortunately, in the case of these same migrants in Europe, good medical care only led to them having more children. Approximately the same thing is observed in Haiti, where the overwhelming majority of the population lives far below the poverty line, but continues to regularly give birth. Various public organizations pay benefits to many, which are quite enough for survival.

Medicine is above all!

Therefore, there is no need to limit ourselves to just improving the quality of medical care. It is necessary to offer financial incentives to families with no more than two or three children, impose lower taxes on them, and offer simplified schemes for enrolling in universities for children from such families. Simply put, they must be addressed comprehensively.

In addition, effective social advertising about the benefits of contraception, supported by the low cost of such drugs, is extremely important. It is necessary to explain to people that overpopulation entails poor living conditions for their children, who will not be able to live normally in the smog of large cities, devoid of greenery and clean air.

How to increase fertility?

What are the ways to solve the demographic problem if we have to fight not with overpopulation, but with a shortage of this very population? Oddly enough, they are practically the same. Let's consider them from the position of our state.

First, it is extremely important to increase the level of well-being of the population. Many young families do not have a child simply because they are not sure about the future. We need preferential housing for young families, tax breaks, and significantly increased payments of material benefits to large families.

Among other things, it is mandatory to provide the opportunity to receive preferential medicines and food for children. Since all this costs a lot, many young families simply exhaust their budgets, buying everything they need only with their own money. In the same row there is a decrease for young and large families.

Of course, we should not forget about promoting family values. In any case, the solution to the demographic problem must be comprehensive, with mandatory consideration of all factors that lead to fertility disorders.